Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has reached 69%, according to CME FedWatch metrics. The data indicates a 43.4% likelihood of a 25 basis point increase, while a 50 basis point hike carries a 21.2% probability. Smaller chances exist for more aggressive moves, with 75 basis points at 4.1% and 100 basis points at 0.3%.

This distribution suggests that markets are pricing in a moderate tightening cycle rather than an emergency shock. The dominance of the 25bp scenario implies that policymakers may prefer a gradual approach to combat inflation without triggering severe economic contraction. Investors should monitor upcoming CPI data for further shifts in these probabilities.