SpaceX has officially set its initial public offering price at $135 per share, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion in capital. This transaction structure establishes a fully diluted valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion, positioning the event as the largest IPO in capital market history. If executed as planned, this valuation increase would add more than $220 billion to 马斯克's personal net worth, potentially propelling him toward the status of the world's first trillionaire. The magnitude of this financial maneuver has ignited intense debate within the investment community regarding whether the pricing accurately reflects the company's intrinsic value or merely prices in speculative future growth.

Proponents of the valuation argue that traditional aerospace metrics are insufficient for assessing SpaceX's potential, necessitating a model that integrates Starlink, low-cost launch capabilities, and emerging AI initiatives. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Goldman Sachs, a core underwriter, estimates SpaceX revenue could reach $160 billion by 2028 and exceed $470 billion by 2030, with the AI segment alone projected to generate $322 billion in revenue by 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley forecasts a long-term trajectory where revenue hits $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA surpassing $2.7 trillion, suggesting the combined 'space plus AI' growth engine far outpaces legacy aerospace firms.

Independent research institutions further validate the strategic shift from a pure rocket manufacturer to a comprehensive space infrastructure platform. Sacra estimates 2025 revenue at $18.7 billion, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion as the primary profit driver, highlighting the company's vertical integration advantages in manufacturing, launching, and network control. ARK Invest's open-source valuation model projects an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a bull case reaching $3.1 trillion, indicating that the $135 share price may still have room for appreciation if Starship and satellite internet initiatives succeed. Woofun AI notes that these bullish scenarios rely heavily on the successful execution of complex technological roadmaps and the monetization of future AI applications.

Conversely, a significant contingent of analysts argues that the $1.77 trillion valuation embeds excessive expectations regarding future growth, particularly concerning the unproven AI business segment. Morningstar's discounted cash flow model calculates a fair value of only $78 billion, representing roughly 45% of the targeted IPO valuation, with the core launch and Starlink businesses valued at $611 billion and AI-related ventures at $170 billion after probability weighting. PitchBook's sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests a fair value range between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, placing the $135 price near or slightly above the upper bound, while New Constructs rates the stock as 'Unattractive,' citing the need for $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2035 to justify the current price.

The skepticism is compounded by structural risks, including a significant 'Musk premium' in the valuation, limited voting rights for public investors, and potential misuse of IPO proceeds for debt repayment. Trefis sets a target price of $79 per share, arguing that while SpaceX possesses scarce commercial advantages, the current issuance price ignores fundamental valuation risks. Woofun AI analysis suggests that the requirement for an average annual growth rate of 50% over the next decade to support the $1.75 trillion valuation lacks historical precedent, creating a precarious risk-return profile for new investors.

Despite the polarized views on valuation, market demand remains robust, with the subscription multiple for the SpaceX IPO reaching 4 times, signaling strong institutional and retail interest regardless of the pricing controversy. The core divergence lies in whether investors are buying a proven aerospace leader or betting on a speculative future where Starlink, AI, and space infrastructure converge to generate unprecedented returns. As the IPO proceeds, the market will ultimately determine if the $135 price point represents a rational entry into the future of space or an overpriced gamble on 马斯克's vision.