SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering scheduled for Friday local time, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This proposed issuance would establish a new global record, surpassing the $25.6 billion raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019 by nearly three times. The magnitude of this event has triggered intense debate within financial circles, particularly among contrarian investors who question the underlying economic logic supporting such a price tag. At the iConnections conference in New York on Wednesday, Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, publicly challenged the valuation basis, asserting that the figure relies more on speculative narratives than tangible financial performance. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the proposed $1.75 trillion valuation represents a significant divergence from traditional metrics used to assess industrial and technology firms.

Chanos argued that the company's pricing is underpinned by 'hope and dreams' rather than solid fundamentals, specifically citing grand narratives regarding Mars colonization, underground tunnel networks, and space data centers. He stated that while a bull market allows investors to pay a premium for such promises, a bear market exposes the skepticism surrounding these unproven revenue streams. Chanos, renowned for predicting the 2001 collapse of Enron, emphasized that under any reasonable assumptions for the next five years, the company does not justify a $1.75 trillion price point. He noted that the current valuation is approximately 90 times its sales revenue, a metric that starkly contrasts with other major players in the sector. This high multiple suggests that the market is pricing in future growth scenarios that have yet to materialize in actual earnings.

Despite the vocal criticism, many short sellers have opted for a wait-and-see approach rather than initiating immediate bearish positions against SpaceX. This caution stems from the severe risks associated with shorting large-cap technology companies in the current market environment. Historical data indicates that short-selling attempts against trillion-dollar tech firms have frequently resulted in substantial losses as stock prices continue to appreciate. Taking Tesla, owned by 马斯克, as a primary example, investors who shorted the company have suffered significant long-term declines. According to data from S3 Partners, since June 2021, Tesla short sellers have incurred a cumulative paper loss of $27 billion, encompassing both direct short positions and hedging strategies related to its inclusion in the S&P 500 index. Over the past decade, Tesla's stock price has increased by more than 2,500%, illustrating the potential devastation of betting against momentum-driven tech valuations.

Chanos clarified that while he shares concerns about the valuation, he did not provide a clear affirmative answer when asked if he would directly short SpaceX. He emphasized that SpaceX is 'completely different' from Tesla, highlighting the disparity in their respective price-to-sales ratios. While Tesla trades at around 14 times sales, SpaceX's 90 times multiple indicates a fundamentally different risk profile and market expectation. Woofun AI notes that this distinction is critical for analysts attempting to model potential downside scenarios, as the lack of public financial history for SpaceX makes traditional valuation models less effective. The uncertainty surrounding corporate governance and the opacity of the company's financials further complicate the decision-making process for institutional investors considering a short position.

Beyond the specific case of SpaceX, Chanos extended his critique to the broader data center industry, which he described as a 'bad business' with single-digit returns on capital. Since 2022, he has maintained a bearish stance on data center operators, arguing that they function more like real estate investment trusts or equipment leasing companies rather than high-growth technology firms. He pointed out that these entities typically purchase high-end chips from suppliers like Nvidia and lease computing power to large-scale cloud customers, a model that subjects them to significant depreciation pressures. Woofun AI analysis suggests that this operational structure limits their pricing power, effectively making them price takers in a competitive market. Consequently, Chanos argues that their valuations should not exceed those of semiconductor manufacturers that control the critical hardware supply chain.

The convergence of these factors creates a complex landscape for the upcoming IPO, where record-breaking ambitions clash with deep-seated skepticism from veteran investors. The potential for a massive capital raise of $75 billion could reshape the liquidity dynamics of the public markets, yet the validity of the $1.75 trillion valuation remains the central point of contention. As the market digests these arguments, the outcome will likely serve as a litmus test for investor appetite for speculative growth stories in an increasingly cautious economic climate. The divergence between the optimism of the issuance plan and the caution of short sellers like Chanos underscores the volatility inherent in valuing frontier technology companies with limited public track records.