Woofun AI reports that Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, asserts it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom. Ju presented an on-chain data visualization comparing potential gains against potential losses to evaluate the attractiveness of acquiring Bitcoin at current price levels. This metric specifically assesses the risk-reward ratio for new market entrants. Current market conditions fail to reflect the "bottom zone" characteristics observed in previous major bear markets, including the 2018–2019 period and the 2022 downturn following the FTX collapse. During those historical turning points, upside potential significantly outweighed downside risk, a dynamic currently absent. Ju's analysis indicates that while Bitcoin has corrected from all-time highs, on-chain signals have not aligned with the extreme undervaluation levels seen at past inflection points. This divergence implies the market may still be navigating a phase of price discovery or consolidation rather than establishing a definitive floor. Bitcoin continues to face persistent selling pressure driven by macroeconomic factors, including rising interest rates, regulatory crackdowns, and risk-off sentiment among institutional investors. Ju's cautious stance directly contrasts with prevailing narratives suggesting Bitcoin has already priced in the worst of the current cycle. The absence of a clear bottom signal indicates that the probabilistic edge for new long positions is not as strong as in past bear market troughs, influencing decisions around dollar-cost averaging and risk management.

Woofun AI notes that on-chain metrics are recognized as lagging indicators that do not account for sudden exogenous shocks. Ju's assessment reflects a data-driven outlook, suggesting the risk-reward ratio for buying Bitcoin is not yet as favorable as during previous major bottoms. This lack of alignment with historical valuation extremes marks a critical divergence from typical cycle completion signals.