Woofun AI reports that Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent figure among China's Bitcoin miners, has issued a stark forecast suggesting Bitcoin could plummet to the $42,000 range before finding a cycle bottom in late 2026. This prediction diverges from standard chart analysis, relying instead on a specific valuation metric tied to Strategy's market net asset value, or mNAV. The miner's model indicates that current market conditions mirror the precursors to the severe downturn observed in 2022, signaling a prolonged period of weakness ahead for the digital asset.

The core of Jiang's analysis rests on the behavior of mNAV, which quantifies the relationship between Strategy's stock price and the Bitcoin backing each share. When this ratio exceeds 1.0, the market assigns a premium to the equity, whereas a reading below 1.0 signals weakening demand relative to the underlying holdings. Recently, this critical metric fell to 0.72, a level that Jiang identifies as a historical warning sign. This specific figure triggered his alert because it closely resembles the environment present on May 11, 2022, when mNAV hovered near 0.7 as broader market conditions began to deteriorate rapidly.

Historical data from the previous cycle provides the structural basis for this bearish outlook. In 2022, mNAV reached its nadir while Bitcoin was trading near $31,017, yet the asset continued its descent for several more months. It was not until roughly six months after that mNAV bottom that Bitcoin finally hit its cycle low near $15,476. Jiang has applied this exact timing framework to the current market landscape, projecting that a comparable bottom could emerge around October 31, 2026. This timeline suggests that the current price action is merely the beginning of a multi-year correction phase rather than an immediate resolution.

Jiang Zhuoer's conviction in this model is evidenced by his immediate portfolio adjustments, moving beyond theoretical discussion into active risk management. He disclosed that he has already liquidated his spot Bitcoin holdings and initiated short positions designed for medium and short-term trading horizons. These actions demonstrate a high degree of confidence that the market will follow the trajectory outlined by his mNAV analysis.

Furthermore, he explicitly stated his intention to re-enter the market as a buyer only when Bitcoin approaches the projected bottom zone between $42,000 and $44,000.

These remarks surfaced during a period of significant volatility for the broader cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin recently breached the $60,000 support level, an event that cascaded into more than $850 million in liquidations across various exchanges. The selling pressure extended beyond the digital asset itself, weighing heavily on crypto-linked equities. Strategy shares suffered sharp losses as investors systematically reduced their exposure to risk assets in response to the deteriorating technical indicators.

Woofun AI data shows that the correlation between Strategy's equity performance and Bitcoin's price action remains a critical variable for institutional sentiment. The recent drop in mNAV to 0.72 serves as a tangible data point that validates Jiang's concern regarding investor sentiment shifting before major turning points materialize. While markets rarely adhere perfectly to any single predictive model, the alignment of current metrics with the 2022 crash pattern offers a compelling narrative for caution.

Whether Bitcoin ultimately reaches the $42,000 target remains an open question subject to unforeseen macroeconomic variables.

However, the emergence of such a detailed framework from a top miner underscores the growing influence of cycle analysis on investor expectations. With a projected low near late 2026, market participants now possess a specific timeline and price target to monitor as conditions evolve. This marks a significant shift in how seasoned traders are interpreting the current market structure.