Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Digital has revised its forecast for the CLARITY Act, reducing the probability of passage this year from 60% to 50%. This downgrade stems from procedural delays in merging the bill between the Senate Banking Committee and the House Agriculture Committee, where a consolidated draft remains unreleased. The legislative calendar is now severely constrained, requiring the bill to clear both chambers before the late July recess, a timeline analysts deem ambitious.

The Senate requires 60 votes for passage, a threshold that necessitates significant bipartisan support to succeed. If the Senate Majority Leader fails to schedule a floor vote by early July, discussions will likely shift to September. This delay coincides with the midterm election season, which will dominate the political landscape and make legislative passage significantly more difficult.

Beyond calendar constraints, Galaxy Digital identifies several unresolved hurdles that complicate the process. The bill faces direct competition from other high-priority legislation while internal disagreements over ethics provisions remain unsettled. These factors collectively dampen the likelihood of a smooth legislative trajectory in the coming weeks. Per Woofun AI, the firm notes that the outlook could improve only if consolidation proceeds rapidly and a floor vote is secured in July.

A successful vote before the recess would signal strong bipartisan momentum and potentially set a precedent for future crypto-related legislation.

However, the CLARITY Act's path through Congress remains uncertain with a 50% probability of passage this year. The coming weeks are critical as lawmakers navigate procedural hurdles, competing priorities, and the looming election season. For the crypto industry, the outcome carries significant implications for regulatory clarity and market stability.