Mizuho Downgrades Circle to Underperform, Cuts Target to $50 Amid OpenUSD Pressure

Mizuho lowers Circle rating and price target, citing margin compression from OpenUSD competition and reduced 2027 EBITDA forecasts below consensus.

Woofun AI reports that Mizuho has downgraded Circle’s stock rating from Neutral to Underperform, simultaneously reducing its price target from $85 to $50. The bank attributes this shift to intensifying competitive pressure from OpenUSD, whose pass-through model may compel Circle to distribute a larger share of reserve income to partners, thereby squeezing profit margins. Mizuho also lowered its 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast for Circle to $699 million, which sits approximately 25% below Wall Street consensus, while warning that the pending renewal of the Coinbase revenue-sharing agreement could exert additional downward pressure.