Polymarket US-Iran Ceasefire Probability Jumps 19% to 59%

Betting odds for a US-Iran ceasefire before July 31 surge 19% in one day to 59%, reflecting shifting geopolitical sentiment on the prediction market.

Woofun AI data shows that the probability of an "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has climbed to 59%, marking a 19% increase within a single day. The market settles as "Yes" if the US refrains from qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days prior to the deadline; otherwise, it resolves as "No."

Qualifying actions are strictly defined as US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks directly striking Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded activities encompass intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery fire, and unexecuted threats. Disputes regarding occurrence or attribution require consensus from official sources and credible media, with final judgments based on comprehensive available information if differences persist after three calendar days.