Gold Rise Probability Hits 61% in Aug-Oct Window, S&P 500 Avg Return Near Zero

Historical data indicates S&P 500 faces weakest Q3 with -0.02% avg return and 7.35% drawdown. Gold shows 61% rise probability, while USD and bonds gain as defensive hedges.

Woofun AI notes that Bank of America Securities analyst Paul Ciana identified August through October as the historically weakest three-month window for the S&P 500. Since 1928, the index has recorded an average return of -0.02% during this period, with a 55% frequency of positive years and an average drawdown of 7.35%, the largest among all rolling three-month intervals.

The report highlights that defensive assets, including the U.S. dollar, U.S. bonds, and gold, typically outperform during this timeframe. Gold has risen 61% of the time since 1992 within this window, averaging a 2.52% gain, while 30-year Treasury yields tend to decline. Conversely, energy assets may buck the trend, with the Bloomberg Energy Index averaging a 2.42% increase in August.