Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 31% as BTC Correlation With Stocks Hits Multi-Month Low

Bitcoin faces macro headwinds with 31% rate hike probability and cooling whale inflows. BTC-stock correlation drops to March lows, signaling potential decoupling amid Fed decision countdown.

Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin faces critical macroeconomic scrutiny ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision. CME FedWatch data indicates a 31% probability of a rate hike this week, while September hike expectations reached 50%. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.3%, though oil prices fell 8% following a pause in U.S.-Iran military actions, slightly cooling hike fears. June PCE data due July 31 is expected to drop to 3.7% from May’s 4.1%.

TradingView data shows the BTC/USD correlation with the S&P 500 near March lows, with a Nasdaq correlation coefficient of only 0.11. CryptoQuant data reveals whale BTC inflows to Binance decreased 44% since June 12, while retail inflows dropped 22%. Retail inflows now exceed whale inflows by $3.9 billion. Bitcoin tested $65,680 resistance, remaining sandwiched between the 200-week and 50-month moving averages.