Samsung Securities: China DUV Progress Has Limited Impact on AI Chip Cycle

Analyst Lee Jong-wook argues Chinese immersion DUV mass production plans have minimal effect on the current AI cycle, driven by US hyperscalers and NVIDIA, noting market reaction is overdone.

Woofun AI notes that Samsung Securities analyst Lee Jong-wook stated recent reports of a Chinese state-backed enterprise entering mass production of immersion DUV lithography equipment have limited impact on the current AI chip cycle. The report details plans to produce five units in 2026 and twenty in 2027 for SMIC and Yangtze Memory, though mass production capability remains unverified, compared to ASML’s 131 units shipped in 2025.

The analyst emphasized that the core of the current cycle relies on US hyperscale cloud providers and NVIDIA’s data center ecosystem, where product validation and geopolitical risks hinder short-term adoption of Chinese components. The sell-off in US semiconductor stocks is described as an overreaction reflecting fragile sentiment rather than fundamental shifts, with the impact more relevant to the depth of the next cycle’s trough than the timing of the current peak.