CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Probability Drops to 30% Amid Senate Hurdles

Galaxy Research cuts CLARITY Act 2026 passage odds from 50% to 30%, citing Senate majority deficits. Senator Husted backs the bill, which splits SEC/CFTC jurisdiction and bans official crypto compensation.

Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Research reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, Head of Research, identified the 60-vote Senate threshold as the primary barrier, noting supporters may lack a simple majority. U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly endorsed the legislation, arguing that a clear regulatory framework is essential for maintaining U.S. leadership in digital assets. The bill establishes a federal framework dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, granting the CFTC exclusive authority over spot digital commodities while the SEC retains oversight of security-like assets. The revised proposal also prohibits federal officials and their spouses from receiving compensation via digital asset issuance or sponsorship until January 2029, requiring them to sell holdings or place them in blind trusts.