HBM4 Cost Doubling Lifts Rubin GPU Price to $80k While NVIDIA Retains 75% Margin

Rising HBM4 costs push NVIDIA Rubin GPU prices to $78k-$80k, yet the company maintains 75%-80% gross margins. Custom ASIC HBM costs also surge, reinforcing NVIDIA's pricing power and competitive moat in AI infrastructure.

Woofun AI data shows that HBM4 costs are projected to rise from $17-18/GB for HBM3e to $31-32/GB by 2026, increasing the price of NVIDIA's Rubin GPU to approximately $78,000-$80,000. Despite this cost escalation, NVIDIA is expected to sustain gross margins between 75% and 80%, demonstrating unshaken pricing power and cost pass-through capabilities. Custom ASICs utilizing HBM may face even higher costs, reaching $35-36/GB, with overall HBM expenses doubling by 2027.

Fubon Securities maintains optimism regarding AI market demand, noting that token costs remain a primary driver for cloud service provider capital expenditure despite inflation concerns. NVIDIA's new rack architecture will utilize the same number of compute chips, employing cables for intra-rack Scale-up and NPO/CPO for inter-rack Scale-out.

Meanwhile, Google plans to deploy 12-15 million TPUs by 2028, doubling capacity consumption from 2027 levels. Intel's EMIB capacity is set to reach 24,000-25,000 wafers monthly by late 2027, while TSMC will prioritize CoWoS expansion over SoIC growth.