Bitcoin Gains 6% in July as Fed Rate Hike Probability Stands at 30%

BTC rises 6% in July while S&P 500 stays flat. CME data shows 30% chance of 25bps hike. Analysts note weakening correlation with Nasdaq amid Fed uncertainty.

Woofun AI data shows Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 6% during July, contrasting with a flat S&P 500 and a nearly 20% decline in the semiconductor sector. CME FedWatch indicators reflect a 70% likelihood of unchanged interest rates and a 30% probability of a 25 basis point increase on Wednesday.

Analyst Thahbib Rahman from Block Scholes highlighted that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s reduced reliance on forward guidance has heightened market uncertainty, marking this FOMC meeting as one of the most unpredictable in recent years. Vetle Lunde, research director at K33 Research, observed that stretched positions in the previously strong Nasdaq and Bitcoin’s consolidation near multi-year lows have weakened their correlation. Rahman noted that "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming," though Lunde suggested the meeting may have limited impact on BTC.