Macquarie Forecasts Fed Rate Hike in December Amid Hawkish Shift

Macquarie expects a December rate hike as Fed statement wording may shift hawkishly. Dissenting votes likely if rates hold, with unemployment data described more optimistically.

Woofun AI reports that Macquarie Group’s head of economic research, David Doyle, anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the current meeting, marking the first instance this year where the policy decision lacks clarity. Market-implied probabilities for a rate hike stand at approximately 35%, with attention focused on Chairman Warsh’s communication and potential dissenting votes. Doyle projects that the next policy move will likely be a rate hike, with December identified as the most probable timing. The upcoming statement may adopt a more optimistic tone regarding the unemployment rate and lean toward a hawkish bias, potentially including language that suggests a future tightening stance.