JPMorgan Simulates FOMC Impact: S&P 500 Faces 0.5% Drop in 50% Hawkish Scenario

JPMorgan models FOMC outcomes, assigning 50% probability to a hawkish stance that could depress the S&P 500 by 0.5%, while a 20% rate hike risk threatens a 1.5%-2% decline.

Woofun AI reports that JPMorgan Chase has modeled the potential market reaction to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The bank anticipates rates will remain unchanged, with a 50% probability of a hawkish outcome leading to flat or negative returns of up to 0.5% for the S&P 500. Conversely, a 28% chance of a dovish stance could lift the index by 1%. A 20% probability of a 25 basis point hike poses a risk of a 1.5%-2% S&P 500 drop, with the Nasdaq expected to underperform.