Goldman Sachs Flags One-Third Fed Hike Chance, Largest Surprise Since 1997

Goldman Sachs estimates a 33% probability of a Fed rate hike today. Any decision marks the largest non-rate-cut surprise since 1997, signaling high market volatility risk.

Woofun AI reports that Goldman Sachs identifies a one-third probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase today, driven by current interest rate futures pricing. The firm notes that regardless of the outcome, this event constitutes the largest "surprise" at a non-rate-cut meeting since 1997.

Goldman Sachs further clarifies that a rate hike would represent the most significant meeting-day shock since the Fed began issuing policy statements, excluding instances of rate cuts.