Clarity Act Passage Odds Drop to 26% on Prediction Markets

JPMorgan notes Senate focus shifts and unresolved regulatory clauses have pushed Clarity Act passage probability to yearly lows, creating headwinds for crypto market expectations.

Woofun AI reports that JPMorgan analysts observe a decline in the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing the U.S. Senate by year-end. Prediction markets reflect this shift, with Kalshi showing a 37% probability and Polymarket at 26%, marking the lowest levels for the year. The bank attributes this uncertainty to the Senate prioritizing other legislative items before the summer recess, alongside unresolved debates over ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance. Previously, JPMorgan viewed the bill as a positive catalyst for establishing a clear regulatory framework where the CFTC oversees digital commodities and the SEC retains jurisdiction over digital securities. Analysts maintain that passage would foster institutional infrastructure, ease restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost U.S. liquidity, and lower entry barriers for financial institutions.