Fed September 25bp Hike Probability Hits 73.6% Per CME Data

CME FedWatch indicates a 73.6% chance of a 25bps rate hike by September, with October probabilities shifting toward higher cumulative increases.

Woofun AI data shows that CME's "Fed Watch" tool assigns a 73.6% probability to the Federal Reserve implementing a cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points by September. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged through that period stands at 26.4%. For October, the data reflects a 62.1% probability of a 25bps cumulative hike and a 17.9% chance of a 50bps increase, while the probability of no change drops to 19.9%.