CLARITY Act Passage Probability Drops 9% to 31% in One Month

Bernstein warns that legislative failure may trigger short-term sell-offs and pressure Bitcoin, while predicting a market bottom by late Q3 amid declining odds.

Woofun AI reports that investment firm Bernstein stated the likelihood of the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing is diminishing. If the Senate fails to advance the bill before recess, it may trigger a short-term negative market reaction, putting pressure on Bitcoin and overall crypto asset valuation. Bernstein noted that bill failure could cause an "instinctive sell-off," but might also prompt the SEC and CFTC to accelerate regulatory actions, including clarifying token classification rules and establishing a DeFi regulatory framework.

Woofun AI data shows that Polymarket odds for the bill passing this year have dropped to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and 9 percentage points in the past month, with approximately $3.7 million in related bets. Galaxy Digital previously lowered the probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that Senate advancement time is running short due to banking industry opposition over stablecoin yield provisions.