SpaceX Earnings Focus on AI Losses and Starlink Growth Amid Valuation Concerns

SpaceX releases first post-IPO earnings; market scrutinizes AI infrastructure losses, Starlink user growth, and potential sell pressure from lock-up expirations.

Woofun AI reports that SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report after going public on Tuesday after the U.S. stock market closes. As the company's first post-listing performance disclosure since its IPO in June, the market will focus on evaluating its performance in the three main business segments: rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and AI infrastructure, and assess whether the current high valuation is supported by performance.

SpaceX's post-IPO stock price once reached a historic closing high of $201.80, then continued to fall, with a market capitalization approaching $3 trillion at one point, and has now dropped to around $1.4 trillion. The market expects SpaceX's second-quarter revenue to be around $6.88 billion, with a loss per share of 23 cents, quarterly EBITDA of about $2.1 billion, full-year revenue expectations of around $39 billion, and EBITDA of around $17.3 billion.

The AI business has become the key focus of this earnings report. In February of this year, SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's AI company xAI through an all-stock transaction and integrated the related business into its corporate structure. Data shows that SpaceX's first-quarter AI business revenue was approximately $818 million, but operational losses reached $2.5 billion, with $7.7 billion in capital expenditures invested in AI infrastructure and data center construction.

Investors will focus on the commercialization progress of the AI business, as well as revenue contributions from partnerships with Anthropic, Google, and other companies. Starlink remains SpaceX's primary source of revenue. The company's first-quarter data shows that the number of Starlink users has reached 10.3 million, with significant year-over-year growth. The market will focus on the growth of enterprise and government customers, average revenue per user, and future satellite deployment plans.

In addition, investors will also focus on the commercial progress of Starship. SpaceX has conducted approximately 90 Falcon 9 launches so far this year and completed the 13th Starship test flight in July, deploying 20 new-generation V3 satellites. Currently, SpaceX operates over 9,600 active satellites in low Earth orbit, with Musk planning to build a Starlink mega-constellation of up to 100,000 satellites in the future. Aside from business data, the market is also concerned about the selling pressure from internal shareholder lock-up expirations. Approximately 20% of the locked-up shares will be eligible for sale starting on August 6th, and investors are worried that early shareholders selling off their stakes may increase market supply. Currently, among the 37 analysts covering SpaceX, 28 have given a buy or hold rating, with an average target price of $236.72.