Bitcoin August Outlook: 55% Chance of $58k-$67k Range, Macro Catalysts Needed for Breakout

CryptoQuant analyst projects BTC to trade between $57,700 and $67,000 in August with 55% probability. Upside depends on ETF flows and macro shifts, while downside risks target $52,800.

Woofun AI notes that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. outlines an August outlook for Bitcoin, citing a 50% retracement from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200. The analysis indicates BTC has approached its on-chain average holding cost, suggesting a volatile trend for the month.

The report assigns a 55% probability to BTC trading within the $57,700 to $67,000 range, potentially closing between $60,000 and $64,000. A bearish case (30%) implies a drop below $57,700 toward the $52,800 realized price, while a bullish scenario (15%) requires holding above $67,000 with targets of $71,000 to $74,000, contingent on ETF inflows, lower Treasury yields, and a weaker US Dollar. High interest rates and strong dollar metrics currently cap upside potential, with key macro events including non-farm payrolls, CPI, and the Jackson Hole symposium set to influence liquidity.