Fed September 25bps Hike Probability Rises to 54.4%

CME Fed Watch data indicates a 54.4% likelihood of a 25bps rate hike in September, with October probabilities split between unchanged rates and further hikes.

Woofun AI data shows that CME Fed Watch currently prices in a 54.4% probability for a cumulative Federal Reserve interest rate increase of 25 basis points by September. The market assigns a 45.6% chance to rates remaining unchanged through that period.

Looking ahead to October, the probability of rates staying flat drops to 33.5%, while a 25bps cumulative hike holds at 52.1% and a 50bps cumulative hike sits at 14.5%.