US July Non-Farm Payrolls Drop 23k, Sept Rate Hike Odds Fall to 44%

US jobs data shows 23k decline with 103k prior revision, triggering market repricing. September rate hike probability drops from 55% to 44% as traders price out further tightening.

Woofun AI reports that US July non-farm payrolls contracted by 23,000, missing the 80,000 forecast, while May and June figures were revised down by 103,000. Macquarie's Thomas Ryan stated this weakness may prompt Federal Reserve officials to reevaluate labor health and reduce willingness to tighten policy. ClearBridge's Jeff Schulze noted seasonal fluctuations often reverse in autumn with underlying growth persisting. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner warned that weak employment eases September hike pressure, but strong inflation data could still support tightening. CME data shows September rate hike expectations fell from 55% to 44% as stock futures rose and Treasury yields declined.