Fed Rate Hold Odds Rise to 63% as July Jobs Data Weakens

Prediction markets price in a 63% chance of no Fed rate change in September, up from prior hike expectations, following weak July employment data.

Woofun AI data shows that prediction markets assign a 63% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September. Polymarket recorded over $20.3 million in trading volume for this outcome, while Kalshi indicated a 65% likelihood with $4.9 million in volume. CME FedWatch currently prices a 55.6% chance of rates staying within the 3.50%-3.75% range on September 16, a shift from the 67% hike probability noted on July 31. This adjustment follows U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on August 7, which reported a 23,000 job decrease in July and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its late July meeting, with the next session scheduled for September 15-16.