Polymarket US-Iran Hormuz Deal Probability Drops 37% to 11% by Aug 15

Polymarket odds for a US-Iran Strait of Hormuz agreement by August 15 fall 37% to 11%, while August 31 probability declines 23% to 26%, reflecting stalled negotiations.

Woofun AI data shows that the likelihood of a US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz by August 15 has declined to 11% on Polymarket, representing a 37% drop from the previous week. The probability of an accord by August 31 has also decreased by 23% to 26%. Negotiations regarding the reopening of the strait have encountered a deadlock. US officials indicate that discussions on a traffic management framework involving Iran, Oman, and the US are finished, yet the agreement has not been announced after several days, leading to diminished market expectations for a near-term resolution.