Insider Trading in Prediction Markets (Issue 1 · Week 30, 2026)

01Event Overview

Event: Predictive market insider trading Key entities: (other) Time range: 2026-07-15 — 2026-07-22 Number of events: 12 | Related articles: 22

Timeline (latest 5 entries): · 2026-07-22: White House accuses Dark Moon of stealing models · 2026-07-17: Warren questions Trump’s crypto earnings · 2026-07-16: Trump’s crypto earnings under scrutiny · 2026-07-16: Trump’s crypto earnings under scrutiny · 2026-07-16: White House investigates insider trading; suspensions and regulatory audits follow

On July 19, 2026, one year after the GENIUS act was implemented, no final regulations had yet been introduced, putting stablecoins such as USDT at risk of being delisted due to issues with their reserve structures. This marked the official start of a compliance countdown for the industry. Meanwhile, Trump signed a bill to establish a federal regulatory framework, pushing the total value of stablecoins to $310 billion. While giants accelerated their commercial operations, startups struggled with compliance challenges. The closure of this regulatory arbitrage window and the soaring compliance costs are forcing market participants like Tether to develop alternative solutions, thereby reshaping the competitive landscape of the global stablecoin industry.

02Course of the incident

• [2026-07-17] The CLARITY Act remains stalled as the Senate’s voting period closed, leaving regulatory oversight unresolved. Companies face a regulatory vacuum and soaring compliance costs.
• [2026-07-18] Trump signed a bill to establish a federal regulatory framework. The total value of stablecoins reached $310 billion. Giants accelerated their business operations by leveraging clear rules, while startups struggled to survive due to strict bank audits and funding requirements.
• [2026-07-19] One year has passed since the GENIUS Act took effect. Non-U.S. issuers have a two-year window to adjust to U.S. regulatory standards, though specific rules have yet to be finalized.
• [2026-07-20] ADGM recognized XAUT as a qualified spot commodity, allowing institutions to provide compliant services. XAUT’s Total Value Locked surged, and Ledn plans to use it as collateral.
• [2026-07-21] Base developers confirmed that Coinbase will launch 1:1 stock tokens, using its compliance advantages to challenge Robinhood and accelerate the integration of traditional assets with DeFi.
• [2026-07-21] Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo officially joined OKX’s board of directors, rising from an advisory role to a decision-making position. His aim is to leverage his political connections to deepen cooperation with ICE and strengthen OKX’s compliance efforts in the U.S.
• [2026-07-22] The co-founder of Solana used the $1.5 billion settlement case involving Anthropic to analyze the legal boundaries regarding the acquisition of AI training data, highlighting the critical role of blockchain in asset verification and traceability.

03Impact Analysis

04Impact Analysis

05Market Price Dimension

The stablecoin market exhibits significant structural differentiation. As of July 18, 2026, the total value of stablecoins reached $310 billion. Although Tether holds nearly $310 billion in market share, its compliance shortcomings have led European platforms such as Revolut to set an expiration date of August 31 for phasing it out. This has forced OKX’s European version to introduce a USDT-to-USDC conversion channel to cope with regulatory pressure. Meanwhile, the circulating supply of the compliant stablecoin USDGO surpassed $1 billion, ranking it among the top six compliant stablecoins globally and meeting the large-value payment needs of institutions. The digital gold asset XAUT was recognized as a qualified spot commodity by ADGM, driving a surge in its TVL. Ledn plans to include it as collateral to further expand the digital RWA market.

06Regulatory Response Dimension

The global regulatory framework is being implemented at an accelerated pace while showing signs of divergence. On July 18, 2026, Trump signed a bill to establish a federal regulatory framework. One year after the GENIUS act came into effect, non-U.S. issuers have a two-year window to adjust their operations to meet U.S. regulatory requirements. In Europe, the compliance costs associated with MiCA have soared. The CEO of Gate Europe warned that these high costs may make it difficult for some licensed companies to survive, prompting startups to relocate to regions with more lenient regulations. In the United States, the voting period for the CLARITY Act in the Senate has closed, leaving the regulatory status unresolved. Companies are facing both a regulatory vacuum and rising costs. In the Middle East, ADGM has recognized Tether’s gold backing, expanding the scope of compliant assets. In Southeast Asia, Bybit acquired PT Enkripsi Teknologi Handal to obtain an OJK license in Indonesia, enabling it to enter a market with 21.37 million users. Transaction volumes of 482 trillion rupiah underscore the effectiveness of its compliance strategy.

07Ecosystem Impact Dimension

Compliance has become the core driving force behind ecosystem development, prompting industry giants to accelerate their strategic deployments. Coinbase leverages its compliance advantages to launch 1:1 stock tokens, challenging Robinhood and accelerating the integration of traditional assets with DeFi. OKX brought in former New York Governor Cuomo to its board of directors to deepen its partnership with ICE and strengthen its compliance efforts in the U.S. In the infrastructure sector, Digital Asset received an additional $10 million in funding from Shinhan Finance and Standard Chartered, bringing its total funding to $365 million, with a valuation remaining at $2 billion. Cordant completed a $8 million seed financing round to build infrastructure for compliant stablecoins. Alfakraft is collaborating with Bitwise to develop compliant digital asset products for Europe, targeting professional investors through a Luxembourg-based structure. The $1.5 billion settlement involving Anthropic highlights the critical role of blockchain in ensuring data ownership and traceability in AI applications.

08Subsequent focus areas

09Key Monitoring Points

1. Compliance Deadline for Non-U.S. Issuers under the GENIUS Act
   Non-U.S. stablecoin issuers have two years to adjust to meet U.S. regulatory requirements, though specific rules have not yet been finalized. It is essential to keep an eye on whether U.S. regulators issue detailed guidelines by July 2028. Strict rules or delays in implementation could lead to significant changes in market liquidity.

2. Risk of Institutional Withdrawals Due to High MiCA Compliance Costs
   Excessive compliance costs are making it difficult for some companies licensed under MiCA to sustain operations, prompting startups to relocate to regions with looser regulations. It is necessary to monitor the operational status of major European crypto exchanges and stablecoin service providers. The withdrawal or reduction of services by key players in Europe would serve as a warning sign of the pressure imposed by compliance requirements.

3. The Future of Tether in the European Market
   Companies like Revolut have set an August 31 deadline in response to Tether’s refusal to comply and the trend of European platforms withdrawing support for it. Close attention should be paid to how major European payment platforms handle USDT around August 31, 2026. Large-scale removals or trading restrictions on USDT could significantly disrupt the stablecoin market landscape.

4. Financing Trends for Compliant Stablecoin Infrastructure
   Cordant has completed a $8 million seed funding round aimed at developing compliant stablecoin infrastructure. It is important to track the progress and speed of financing for such projects. If funding scales up continuously or if major companies acquire relevant firms, it will indicate that the industry is accelerating its shift toward compliant infrastructure.

10Related Reads

1. “Tether and Other Stablecoin Issuers Given Two Years to Develop Compliant MicroStrategies”
2. “Stablecoin Market Value Exceeds $310 Billion: Giants Take the Lead while Startups Struggle with Compliance Issues”
3. “Tether Refuses to Comply: The $310 Billion Giant Expelled by European Platforms”
4. “Senate Voting Period Ends; Rising Compliance Costs Force Companies to Find Solutions on Their Own”
5. “ADGM Recognizes Tether Gold, Expanding Compliance Reach in the Middle East”
6. “Coinbase Counters Robinhood: Achieving Compliance through 1:1 Stock Tokens”
7. “Former New York Governor Joins OKX’s Board of Directors; Crypto Giants Bet on New Compliance Paths”
8. “Anthropic Pays $1.5 Billion in Settlement: New Developments in AI Data Compliance”
9. “OSL’s Compliant Stablecoin USDGO Reaches $1 Billion in Circulation”
10. “Rising MiCA Compliance Costs May Force Licensed Crypto Companies to Leave the EU”
11. “Bybit Acquires Licensed Institutions to Overcome Compliance Challenges in a Market with 21.37 Million Users”
12. “Valued at $2 Billion: Shinhan and Standard Chartered Invest Another $10 Million in Compliant Blockchain Projects”
13. “Giants Invest in Compliance Infrastructure: Cordant Secures $8 Million in Seed Funding”
14. “Alfakraft and Bitwise Collaborate to Develop Compliant Digital Asset Products for Europe”