Token Unlock Calendar (Issue 1 · Week 28, 2026)

01This Week’s Unlocks Overview

02This Week’s Unlocks Overview

A total of 0 financing events were recorded this period.

Despite the lack of new financing data, market liquidity remains focused on token unlocks and institutional portfolio adjustments. Between July 6 and 12, the PUMP project saw daily unlock values reaching $1.25 billion, with a cumulative total of over $133 million unlocked this week; the RAIN protocol plans to release approximately $778 million in tokens on July 12; four projects including HYPE released over $30 million in tokens this week. On the institutional front, BlackRock transferred over $212 million in BTC and $32.39 million in ETH to Coinbase on July 1 as part of routine liquidity management under the ETF share redemption mechanism. On July 6, BlackRock quickly bought back $81 million of Bitcoin following a pullback triggered by MicroStrategy’s sales, helping push Bitcoin prices above $63,000.

Statistics Summary

• Total Number of Events: 0
• Total Amount: $0 billion
• Average per Event: $0 billion

Note: This section is based solely on the provided financing event data and does not include token unlock amounts or institutional transfer figures.

03Analysis of Key Unlock Events

Analysis of Key Unlocking Events

Liquidity Shock from PUMP and RAIN
The market faced significant token release pressure this week. The PUMP project released 29.23% of its tokens between July 6 and 12, with the value unlocked on July 12 alone reaching $1.25 billion. Meanwhile, the RAIN protocol planned to release approximately 5.06 million tokens on July 12, worth around $778 million. The combined effect of these two events led to a substantial volume of token unlocks across multiple projects this week. In addition to the aforementioned projects, APT and RED also saw significant circulation, with RED’s circulation increasing by nearly 10%. Given the current BTC price of $62,853.00, such large-scale unlocks pose a direct challenge to short-term market sentiment, and investors should be cautious about potential volatility caused by moves by large Whale holders.

Structural Selling Pressure from HYPE and ALLO
Beyond the leading projects, tokens like HYPE saw over $30 million in unlocks this week, with HYPE alone accounting for approximately $30.9 million, the highest share. The Allora protocol will unlock 17.25 million ALLO tokens on July 11, valued at around $5.98 million. The Unitas project will also release approximately 9.38 million UP tokens on July 13, worth $3.01 million. Although net sales of altcoins other than BTC and ETH have persisted for 15 months with increasing selling pressure, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, advises investors to take advantage of pullbacks resulting from hedging by original shareholders to buy in at lower prices, rather than chasing highs in the short term.

Macroeconomic Regulation and Institutional Trends
On the regulatory front, Ripple received approval from Luxembourg’s CSSF on July 6 for a CASP license under the MiCA framework. This allows it to operate across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area without having to apply separately, paving the way for increased practical use of XRP and collaboration on the digital euro. Regarding institutional funding, BlackRock has set a Bitcoin allocation limit of 1% to 2%. Mathematical models show that the higher the price increase, the greater the selling pressure, making financing and tax mechanisms key factors. The inclusion of SpaceX’s 18,700 BTC in the S&P 500 is another macroeconomic development that could influence market trends this week.

04Unlock Pressure Ranking

Unlocking Pressure Ranking

The overall unlocking pressure rating for the market this week is classified as medium, with the peak day set for July 12, 2026. Special attention should be paid to the potential impact of concentrated releases from specific projects on liquidity. Among the key assets, ONDO will see 1.03% of its supply unlocked over the weekend. Given that market liquidity is usually low during weekends, this could exacerbate the risk of selling pressure. STRK, on the other hand, faces a 0.97% unlocking rate, and this event occurs at the start of trading on Monday, making it highly likely to trigger short-term price fluctuations.

Based on token rating data, ETH has a technical score of 88 and a fundamental score of 73, but its liquidity score is only 37. This indicates that although it has strong technical support, its liquidity buffer capacity is relatively limited when facing potential selling pressure. BTC boasts a technical score of 75, a fundamental score of 76, but a liquidity score of 27, also facing the challenge of low liquidity levels. In contrast, AAVE has a liquidity score of 57, showing relative stability among similar projects. It has a technical score of 76, but its fundamental score of 47 suggests that its underlying value support needs further evaluation.

The data shows that although the total amount of assets unlocking this week is at a moderate level, the timing of UNDO and STRK’s unlocks falls during the weekend when liquidity is weak and at the start of trading on Monday when volatility is high. Coupled with the low liquidity scores of ETH and BTC, the market should be vigilant against price anomalies caused by localized liquidity shortages around July 12, 2026.

05Review of the Impact of Historical Unlocks

This week, the market has seen complex dynamics driven by both institutional capital flows and token unlocks. On 07-06, Ripple received approval from Luxembourg’s CSSF for a CASP license under the MiCA framework, allowing it to serve the 30 countries in the European Economic Area without having to apply separately per country — paving the way for increased practical value of XRP and potential collaborations with the digital euro. On a macro level, SpaceX’s 18,700 BTC holdings are set to be included in the S&P 500. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, noted that hedging by original shareholders could create selling pressure, suggesting that investors take this opportunity to buy at lower prices.

In addition to the already disclosed large-scale unlocks, Unitas will unlock 9.38 million UP tokens on 07-13, worth approximately $3.01 million. The Allora protocol plans to unlock 17.25 million ALLO tokens on 07-11, with a total value of around $5.98 million. Furthermore, STEPN GMT will release 55.31 million tokens on 07-09, valued at roughly $2.43 million. Regarding market sentiment, net selling of altcoins other than Bitcoin and ETH has persisted for 15 months, with increasing pressure and no signs of a bottom yet.

06Operational suggestions for this week

Weekly Trading Recommendations

• Weekend Liquidity Defense: Given that ONDO will unlock 1.03% on 2026-07-12 (a weekend) with a [medium] risk rating, if there are signs of reduced overall market liquidity at that time, it is recommended to adopt a moderately defensive strategy for positions holding this token, avoiding large-scale trades during periods of low liquidity.
• Response to Volatility at Monday’s Open: As STRK will unlock 0.97% at the start of trading on Monday, accompanied by [medium] level pressure, if the price drops sharply within the first hour after market open without a corresponding increase in trading volume, it is advisable to reduce holdings in stages to avoid being hit by short-term selling pressure.
• Monitoring Market Sentiment Thresholds: The current overall AI sentiment score remains at 47/100, indicating a neutral level. If this score falls below 40 within the next 2 weeks or if the BTC price breaks below the $62,853.00 support level, it is recommended to gradually reduce exposure to high-risk assets and prioritize keeping cash reserves.

Key Risk Warnings

• Risk of Liquidity Crunches Over the Weekend: If ONDO’s unlocking date coincides with a weekend, the market depth may be insufficient, leading to abnormal price fluctuations triggered by small sell orders. Beware of irrational price drops.
• Sudden Selling Pressure at Monday’s Open: The 0.97% unlocking of STRK at Monday’s opening could trigger programmed trading to sell off assets in succession. Without sufficient buying interest, this might result in sharp price declines during the day.
• Risk of Amplified Negative Effects from Weakening Sentiment: With current market sentiment at a neutral threshold of 47/100, any negative macroeconomic developments that cause the sentiment score to drop rapidly could exacerbate the negative impacts of these unlocking events.

07Related Reads

1. “PUMP: Approximately $1.25 billion in tokens to be unlocked on July 12”
2. “RAIN: Around $778 million worth of tokens to be unlocked on July 12”
3. “Tokens like HYPE see over $30 million unlocked this week”
4. “BlackRock transfers $212 million in Bitcoin in a single day—Is this normal operation or selling pressure?”
5. “MicroStrategy’s selling pressure continues; BlackRock buys $81 million in minutes”
6. “PUMP: Over $133 million worth of tokens to be unlocked this week”
7. “246 million USDT enters Bitfinex: Whale movements spark speculation about selling pressure”
8. “ALLO: Approximately 172,500 tokens to be unlocked on July 11”
9. “Unitas: 9.38 million UP tokens to be unlocked on July 13”
10. “Tom Lee suggests using SpaceX to take advantage of pullbacks for buying opportunities”
11. “One license for 30 countries: Ripple gets MiCA approval in Luxembourg to enter Europe”
12. “BlackRock’s 2% limit may imply selling pressure; rebalancing triggers as soon as a rebound occurs”
13. “SpaceX to be included in the Nasdaq; Tokens like HYPE see unlocks this week”
14. “STEPN GMT: Approximately $24,300 worth of tokens to be unlocked on July 9”
15. “Spot selling pressure on altcoins drops to five-year low”