Polymarket Regulatory Progress (Issue 2 · Week 29, 2026)

01Latest Developments

Latest Developments

2026-07-13 Polymarket submitted a formal application for a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) license to the National Futures Association (NFA) through its affiliated company, aiming to provide margin trading services in a compliant manner. It also sought approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to amend existing rules in order to support non-full-margin trading models. On the same day, regulatory conditions in Japan became further relaxed, with successive leaders expressing support for Web3. The SBI Group invested nearly $500 million in developing a full-chain ecosystem, while Lawson convenience stores launched stablecoin payment pilots to establish a chaebol-level compliance framework in line with tax reforms.

2026-07-10 The scope of compliance requirements in the United States continued to expand. Gate US obtained a new money transmission license in Florida, bringing its total number of state-level licenses to 36, thereby covering 47 jurisdictions across the country. The impact of the EU’s MiCA regulations became evident as EURC, issued by Circle, received approval in France. Both the number of active addresses and newly created addresses on the blockchain reached new highs in four years.

2026-07-09 Compliance costs in the industry increased under pressure. AscendEX announced its closure due to its failure to meet MiCA standards and deteriorating market conditions, resulting in user withdrawals being stuck in manual review processes and exposing users to the risk of frozen funds. During the same period, giants such as Samsung and Figure took advantage of the bear market to acquire licensed institutions at low prices, accelerating the transformation of crypto infrastructure from an informal sector to a more institutionalized one.

2026-07-07 Clearstream, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse, added six new crypto asset custody services under the MiCA framework, covering mainstream assets such as Ripple and Solana to meet the compliance needs of institutions. South Korea entered a phase of stricter regulation, with the three major exchanges—Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone—working together to place Solana’s meme coin BONK on a delisting watchlist.

02Impact Analysis

The regulatory impact on Polymarket is shifting from “passive defense” to “proactive institutionalization.” Its application to the NFA for an FCM license on July 10, 2026, along with efforts to amend CFTC rules, marks a transition in its compliance strategy—from merely avoiding risks to striving for a position as part of mainstream financial infrastructure. This development carries significant implications: on one hand, if approved, Polymarket will be able to break free from restrictions on non-full-margin trading, thereby expanding the depth of the margin trading market; on the other hand, it aligns with Gate US’s expansion of its compliant services to 47 U.S. jurisdictions on the same date, indicating that leading platforms are building competitive advantages by acquiring licenses at an accelerated pace, thus speeding up the industry’s transformation from an unregulated environment to one with established rules.

However, while compliance brings benefits, it also comes with extremely high barriers to survival, resulting in divergent outcomes. On July 10, 2026, AscendEX was forced to shut down due to failure to meet MiCA standards and faced millions of dollars in shortfall in its hot wallets, serving as a warning that platforms that fail compliance audits risk bankruptcy and frozen funds, accelerating industry consolidation. In contrast, if Polymarket’s proactive application strategy succeeds, it will enable the platform to secure a favorable position in the industry landscape emerging on July 9, 2026, when companies like Samsung are taking advantage of the bear market to acquire licensed institutions, rather than becoming cheap assets for acquisition.

At the macro level, the implementation of regulatory frameworks is reshaping asset flow patterns. The entry into force of MiCA on July 10, 2026, drove EURC’s on-chain data to its highest level in four years, demonstrating that compliance certainty is a key driver for capital inflows. If Polymarket can replicate this approach in the United States, it will not only resolve its own liquidity issues but may also lead to a reevaluation of the overall valuation of the prediction market sector, transforming it from a marginal speculative tool into a regulated financial derivatives market.

03Keep an eye on it later.

Ongoing Monitoring

1. Progress of Polymarket’s FCM License Application (Continued) Closely track the status of the futures commission merchant (FCM) license application submitted by Polymarket’s affiliated companies to the NFA, as well as the Federal Reserve’s feedback on the proposed changes to rules regarding non-full-margin trading. This matter directly determines whether the company can conduct margin trading operations compliantly in the United States, so attention must be paid to the risk of extended approval processes or rejected regulations.

2. Liquidity Coverage and Shutdown Risks for Platforms under the MiCA Framework (New) Given that AscendEX was shut down and automatic withdrawals suspended on July 1, 2026, for failing to meet MiCA standards, it is necessary to continuously monitor the hot wallet funding gaps and the progress of manually approved withdrawals for other platforms regulated by the EU. A funding shortfall of several million dollars or the absence of a repayment timeline could trigger a series of compliance crises.

3. Conflict Between Stablecoin Freezing Obligations and Criminal Charges (Continued) Keep an eye on the subsequent judicial developments in the case against Circle by Wisconsin and New York states for refusing to freeze fraudulent assets. This case will help define the boundaries between stablecoin technical architectures and legal freezing requirements. If the ruling is unfavorable to issuers, it may force the industry to adjust its compliance strategies.

4. Expansion of State-Level Compliance in the U.S. (New) Track the licensing progress of firms such as Gate US in various U.S. states, particularly whether their compliance coverage will expand beyond the current 47 jurisdictions. The number of state-level licenses obtained—such as the new money transmission licenses in Florida—is a key indicator of the institutionalization of crypto infrastructure in the U.S.

5. Implementation of Solutions to Balance Compliance and Speed in the RWA Market (New) Monitor how LayerZero and Centrifuge address the conflict between compliance requirements and speed in the $33 billion tokenized RWA market. It is essential to verify whether their hub-and-spoke model can meet regulatory demands without sacrificing efficiency, thereby facilitating the scaling of compliant digital asset services.

04Related Reads

1. “Polymarket Applies for U.S. FCM License to Provide Margin Trading in Compliance”
2. “Key Figures Back It Up; SBI Invests 500 Million, Rosen Takes Action: Japan Seizes the Opportunity in Compliance”
3. “Gate US Gets Florida Approval, Expanding U.S. Compliance Coverage to 47 Jurisdictions”
4. “MiCA Takes Effect, Triggering a Compliance Wave: EURC’s On-Chain Data Reaches Four-Year High”
5. “Compliance Failures Lead to Shutdown: AscendEX’s Withdrawals Stuck in Manual Review Process”
6. “Valuation Cut by 90%; Giants Rush to Obtain Compliance Licenses Amid Bear Market”
7. “Deutsche Börse’s Subsidiary Adds Six New Currencies: New Path for Institutional Compliance under MiCA”
8. “Three Major Exchanges Collaborate to Address Issues: BONK Under Observation for Compliance Crises”
9. “Compliance Pressures Force Platform Shutdown, Leaving Hot Wallets Short by Millions of Dollars”
10. “Refusing to Freeze Assets Results in Criminal Charges; Stablecoin Compliance Crisis Erupts”
11. “$33 Billion RWA Market: LayerZero and Centrifuge Overcome the Paradox of Compliance Speed”