Daily Report on Stablecoin Chain Flow (Issue 8 · Week 29, 2026)

01Overview of Stablecoin Supply

Using July 15, 2026, as the reference date, the stablecoin market shows characteristics of both overall contraction and structural differentiation. USDT is trading at $0.9992, with a 24-hour trading volume of $48.5B, maintaining its absolute dominance; USDC is trading at $0.9998, with a 24-hour trading volume of $13.7B, but its circulating supply has declined by over $13 billion in just one month, marking the biggest drop since the collapse of Terra and raising concerns about its competitiveness.

On the supply side, Circle has issued an additional $750 million in USDC on Solana, bringing the total issuance on this chain this year to $68.26 billion, highlighting its role as a key efficient settlement layer. However, JPMorgan notes that the 90% profit-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Hyperliquid, along with the declining circulation of USDC, is forcing issuers into a dilemma where they must sacrifice profits to maintain their market share.

On the demand side, Bolivia plans to bring USDT under regulation, while Nigeria sees $59 billion in annual inflows related to stablecoins. The BIS warns that stablecoins could undermine monetary policy and circumvent capital controls, leading to risks of dollarization or regulatory failure. At the institutional level, the U.S. government has transferred approximately $297 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum associated with various cases to Coinbase Prime, raising concerns about violations of Trump’s strategic reserve orders. Additionally, Tether has frozen four wallets on the Tron network, involving around $131 million in USDT, with funds originating from DTC Pay and Bitso and linked to entities subject to Iranian sanctions.

02Flow of exchange stablecoins

On July 15, 2026, Whales and institutional funds exhibited clear signs of risk aversion and asset reallocation. Trump withdrew $1.4 billion to invest in traditional assets, while the government transferred $288 million to Coinbase, indicating a strong tendency among Whales to seek safety. American-linked wallets moved over $290 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, signaling the standardization of institutional asset management and alleviating concerns about market selling pressure. During the same period, MicroStrategy raised $466.7 million through market sales, increasing its dollar reserves to $3 billion while keeping its Bitcoin holdings at 843,000 coins. One Whale that had bought 9,389 ETH at high prices sold off the entire portfolio four years later, suffering losses beyond expectations, which further exacerbated short-term liquidity fluctuations. Overall, the interaction between sovereign entities and crypto infrastructure is becoming more mature, but the cash-out activities of large holders are driving current capital flows.

03Changes in on-chain liquidity

Ethereum leads with a TVL of $41.23B, recording a 4.6% increase over the past 7 days, while its DEX liquidity of $13.42B maintains its top position. Although Solana’s TVL dropped slightly by 1.8% to $4.91B over the same period, it remains a hub of high liquidity thanks to its DEX depth of $19.53B. Circle issued an additional $7.5B in USDC on 07-14 to this chain, bringing the total issued amount close to $682.6B and further strengthening its role as a settlement layer. Base also performed well, with its TVL rising by 3.7% to $4.58B over 7 days, and its DEX volume reaching $12.28B. Monad saw remarkable growth, with its TVL surging by 20.7% to $608M over 7 days and its DEX depth increasing to $50M, indicating signs of capital inflow into emerging chains.

In terms of LP yields, Coinbase launched a USDC lending product based on Morpho on 07-15, offering an initial annualized yield of around 7.02%, which is composed of perpetual contract funding rates and token rewards, without any guaranteed fixed return. There are differences in liquidity ratings among major stablecoins: FDUSD leads with 95 points, followed by USDT at 72 points, USDC at 59 points, and DAI at just 30 points, reflecting the market’s preference for highly liquid assets.

The highest levels of depth and arbitrage opportunities can be found on Solana and Ethereum. Solana’s DEX depth of $19.53B far exceeds its TVL, providing excellent slippage protection; Ethereum’s DEX depth of $13.42B supports large-scale transactions. Although Tron has the highest total stablecoin supply at $91.2B, its DEX depth is only $33M, resulting in a significant liquidity mismatch and high risks of slippage for large transactions. Hyperliquid’s TVL dropped by 5.6% to $1.39B over 7 days, under pressure due to disputes over its 90% distribution protocol.

04Operation suggestions

Operation Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-15

Operation Recommendations

1. Optimize the efficiency of idle funds using high-yield products (Time window: This week) With Coinbase launching USDC lending products based on Morpho, offering an initial annualized return of around 7.02%, driven by perpetual contract funding rates and token rewards, users holding USDC are advised to assess their risk tolerance and allocate some of their idle stablecoins to such high-yield lending agreements. It is crucial to closely monitor fluctuations in funding rates. If the annualized return falls significantly below inflation expectations or turns negative, investors should redeem their principal in a timely manner to avoid subpar returns.

2. Be vigilant against smart contract authorization risks and carry out emergency revocation actions (Time window: Next 2 days) Old BarnBridge proposals (Proposals 14 and 15) pose risks related to the authorization of tokens such as USDC, with execution expected on the blockchain on July 16, 2026. Users holding relevant tokens are advised to immediately check the authorization status of their wallets and complete emergency revocation actions before that date. If authorization has not been revoked in time or there are abnormalities in the on-chain execution, related DeFi interactions should be suspended until the risk is officially ruled out to prevent assets from being misused.

3. Monitor potential impacts of regulatory changes on the liquidity of stablecoins (Time window: This month) Bolivia plans to incorporate USDT into its regulated payment system, while the BIS warns that stablecoins could undermine monetary policy and lead to regulatory failures. Additionally, the Czech Ministry of Finance has classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling platform and ordered ISPs to block access to it. Investors are advised to adopt a more cautious approach and avoid over-concentrating on stablecoin-related activities within a single jurisdiction. If more countries introduce strict regulations or restrictions on the cross-border movement of stablecoins, investors should gradually reduce their exposure to stablecoins associated with regulated entities and diversify into multi-chain or multi-issuer assets.

Risk Warnings

1. Smart contract execution risks BarnBridge Proposals 14 and 15 involve risks related to the authorization of tokens such as USDC. If users fail to revoke the authorization by July 16, 2026, it may result in their assets being accessed without permission. Warning triggers: The on-chain execution date is approaching, and the user has not received confirmation of the revocation.

2. Regulatory compliance risks Multiple countries are tightening regulations on crypto platforms, such as the Czech Republic blocking access to Polymarket and the BIS issuing warnings about stablecoins weakening monetary policy. Warning triggers: Major economies issue new bans on stablecoins or policies restricting their cross-border movement.

3. Return volatility risks The annualized return of around 7.02% for Coinbase’s USDC lending products is not guaranteed and depends on perpetual contract funding rates and token rewards. Warning triggers: Funding rates turn negative or token rewards are significantly reduced, resulting in an actual annualized return below 3%.

05Related Reads

1. “$288 Million Transferred to Coinbase; Trump’s Strategic Reserve Order Under Scrutiny”
2. “Circle Invests Another $750 Million in USDC for Solana; Total Supply Approaches $70 Billion”
3. “90% Profit-Sharing Agreement Triggers Prisoner’s Dilemma: Coinbase’s Profits Eaten by Hyperliquid”
4. “$300 Billion in Stablecoins as Local Currencies: Bolivia Considers Including USDT in Payment System”
5. “$297 Million in Assets Transferred; Trump’s Reserve Order Faces Challenges”
6. “Tether Freezes 4 Addresses Linked to Iran Sanctions, Worth $131 Million”
7. “U.S. Government Transfers $297 Million in Cryptocurrency Assets: Not a Sign of Selling but Institutionalization?”
8. “Coinbase’s USDC Lending Product Offers Annual Yield of Around 7.02%”
9. “BarnBridge’s Old Proposal Involves Authorization Risks; Execution Scheduled for the 16th”
10. “Czech Republic Designates Polymarket as an Illegal Gambling Platform”