Prediction Market Daily
Research Theme
Aggregating odds movements and market insights for trending prediction events on Polymarket and Kalshi, published daily at 09:00.
3.3WOOFUN ResearchCreated: --Updated: 2026/07/26
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Theme Analysis
AI-generatedWOOFUN AI · Prediction Market Daily Theme Overview
AI-generatedPrediction markets are focusing on high-certainty macro-political events, while probabilities for long-cycle events like the World Cup remain dispersed. Consecutive massive outflows from BTC ETFs and institutional selling have triggered a liquidity crisis, pushing prices below key support levels. New regulations, such as those surrounding Open USD, are attempting to reshape the stablecoin landscape, leading to a significant contraction in market risk appetite.
Key Judgements
If BTC experiences net outflows exceeding $5 billion for 10 consecutive days, the price will test the $55,000 support level.Probability 85%
If Open USD secures additional capital from over 10 institutions, including BlackRock, the stablecoin market share will be reallocated.Probability 65%
If trading volume does not double in the week leading up to the World Cup final, the probability of any single team winning will remain below 5%.Probability 78%
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