
沃什发布会重点一览:
1. 利率前景:在必要和适当的情况下,将毫不犹豫地采取行动;如果通胀持续高企,利率可能是解决方法的一部分;不会把我们今天所做的事描述为一次暂停,密切观察市场定价但不随市场定价行动,未行动只是故事开始,而非结束;前瞻性指引的撤回需要一定的过渡期。
2. 通胀前景:认为我们对稍高的通胀目标更为宽容是误读,美联储没有软性通胀目标,唯一的目标是2%的通胀率;6月的核心CPI数据对决策影响不大;重要的是通胀趋势;参考的通胀数据范围比单纯的PCE数据更为广泛;获得了一些令人鼓舞的通胀数据。
3. 经济前景:投资强劲,经济产出稳健,人工智能投资为未来增长奠定基础;我们正在做的是对经济形势的严格审查。劳动力市场稳健且保持稳定,就充分就业而言做得相当不错。
4. 其他问题:本想寻求一场内部争论,结果真的来了一场。反对票未能全面反映讨论的实质,做出的决定得到了绝大多数人的支持。还未考虑在杰克逊霍尔年会的发言。承诺到年底前继续召开发布会。
5. 市场反应:决议公布至沃什发布会期间,现货黄金整体走高逾50美元,并一度突破4100;美元指数DXY跌破101关口;美股先涨后跌基本维持会前涨跌幅;美债2y整体下行8BP,市场对今年的整体加息定价减少超10个基点,但在9月仍有加息15BP的定价。
6. 特朗普在会后称沃什想要降息,但美联储有一个政治性的理事会。
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沃什发布会鹰派,强调2%通胀目标及必要时行动,否认暂停降息。市场反应分化:黄金大涨破4100,美元跌破101,美债收益率下行但9月仍有加息定价。特朗普指责美联储政治化,加剧短期市场波动与不确定性。
02Stance & Sentiment Analysis
−0.3
−0.3
Bearish −1.0Neutral 0Bullish +1.0
Sentiment Strength+0.6
Conviction+0.8
Technical Depth+0.7
Subjectivity+0.4
Urgency+0.6
Originality+0.5
03Market Impact Attribution
黄金涨逾50美元破4100;美元跌破101;美债2Y下行8BP;9月加息定价仍存15BP。
BTC / ETH / XAU price action around tweet
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A very Happy Thanksgiving salutation to all of our Great American Citizens and Patriots who have been so nice in allowing our Country to be divided, disrupted, carved up, murdered, beaten, mugged, and laughed at, along with certain other foolish countries throughout the World, for being “Politically Correct,” and just plain STUPID, when it comes to Immigration. The official United States Foreign population stands at 53 million people (Census), most of which are on welfare, from failed nations, or from prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it’s eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc. Even as we have progressed technologically, Immigration Policy has eroded those gains and living conditions for many. I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won’t be here for long!
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