#FOMC 宏观影响
6月18日:沃什以极简声明确立强硬基调,设立五大工作组重构框架,点阵图集体转向加息,市场波动加剧。。 6月12日:BTC 盈利筹码逼近临界点,宏观逆风压制反弹,美联储议息会议将决定 6 万支撑位能否守住。。 (已沉寂 26 天)
Kevin Warsh chairs first FOMC meeting as Bitcoin faces 11% average post-event selloff risk
Kevin Warsh leads his inaugural FOMC session with a 99.6% probability of a rate hold. Historical data indicates an 11% average Bitcoin decline over the following week regardless of policy outcomes.
BTC faces $60,000 support test as 95% short-term holders face losses ahead of June 18 Fed meeting
BTC drops to $63,000 with 95% of short-term holders in loss, triggering deleveraging. Market stability hinges on June 18 Fed policy shifts and USD index movements below 99.
Kevin Warsh assumes Fed Chair role with 97% probability of 3.50%-3.75% rate hold and potential dot plot de-emphasis
Kevin Warsh chairs first FOMC meeting with rates likely held at 3.50%-3.75%. Markets pivot from rate cuts to potential reduction in forward guidance weight, increasing volatility for Bitcoin and Treasuries.
Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5% to 3.75% while launching 5 task forces amid 60% statement reduction
Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% and slashed the FOMC statement by 60% while establishing 5 task forces. Markets reacted with a hawkish shift as 10-year TIPS yields surged and the dollar hit a yearly high.


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