BTC Slips 4% Weekly as Coldcard Exploit Overrides Iran Deal Hopes

Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin, ether, and other major digital assets experienced downward pressure on Monday, a movement that stood in stark contrast to improving macroeconomic conditions driven by fresh discussions regarding a US-Iran deal. This divergence highlights the market's continued vulnerability to the ongoing Coldcard wallet exploit, which has shown no signs of containment and has effectively overshadowed broader geopolitical optimism. The core conflict lies in the disconnect between traditional risk-on indicators and crypto-specific security failures, with the latter dictating price action despite favorable external narratives.

Price action across the sector reflected this internal strain, with BTC sliding from a Sunday high of $63,600 to $62,800 on Monday, marking a 1% daily decline and a 4% drop over the past week. Ether followed suit, falling over 1% to $1,858 and failing to reclaim the $1,900 level since last week, resulting in a 5% seven-day loss. XRP slipped almost 1% to $1.07, while Solana declined by half a percent to nearly $73, and dogecoin mirrored this move to just under 7 cents. BNB emerged as the sole major asset in the green, remaining flat on the day but posting a 1.6% weekly gain.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's HYPE fell 1% to $52.52, suffering the steepest decline among the top ten with a 12.8% drop over seven days.

The macro environment, however, pointed in the opposite direction throughout the morning session. Brent crude futures for October plunged as much as 7.3% to $81.55 a barrel after President Donald Trump announced he had called off a strike on Iran and would initiate fresh talks on Monday, with Saudi Arabia among the allies advocating for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This de-escalation triggered a rally in Treasuries across the curve, as the oil price drop alleviated inflation concerns, pushing the 10-year yield down four basis points to 4.69% after it had reached its highest level since January 2025 the previous week. Nasdaq 100 futures and European share futures both advanced by 0.8%, while Gold added 0.3% to approximately $4,060 an ounce.

Per Woofun AI, the disconnect between traditional markets and crypto is directly attributable to the Coldcard exploit details reported by CoinDesk on Sunday. A third wave of sweeps against Coldcard-generated addresses was identified over the weekend, bringing total observed losses to 1,367 bitcoin, valued at nearly $89 million, across 4,585 addresses. The average haul per address has decreased with each wave, indicating that the attacker has exhausted large balances and is now targeting wallets worth only a few thousand dollars. Wave one, occurring on July 30, extracted 1,083 bitcoin from 1,196 addresses, whereas wave three removed 208 BTC from 1,912 wallets, representing more wallets for a fifth of the monetary value.

Concurrently, ether funds recorded small inflows on Friday while bitcoin funds saw outflows, an unusual divergence in a market where bitcoin typically dictates direction and ether follows.

Traders are now focused on whether bitcoin can hold the $62,000 support level as the Iran talks progress. A successful deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would likely drive oil prices lower again, potentially offering crypto a second opportunity to align with the traditional market setup it missed earlier. If bitcoin fails to find a bid under these improved conditions, it would confirm that the primary drag on the market originates from internal security vulnerabilities rather than macroeconomic headwinds.