SpaceX Stock Drops 11% as $18.4B Capex and Unlock Overshadow Earnings

Woofun AI reports that an 11% pre-market decline in SpaceX shares emerged as investors prioritized capital spending fears and an impending insider lockup expiration over a strong earnings beat. The market reaction underscores a disconnect between operational growth and valuation concerns, with the stock sliding despite beating Wall Street estimates.

Revenue climbed 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion, narrowing the net loss to $541 million.

However, this profitability was offset by $18.4 billion in quarterly expenditures dedicated to expanding Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure.

Woofun AI data shows that the company maintained its entire bitcoin holding of 18,712 coins, valued at approximately $1.1 billion at the end of June. This position incurred a $195 million loss during the quarter, introducing volatility to earnings regarding fair-value accounting risks for the public company.

JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225 but warned that capital expenditures could reach nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, further pressuring free cash flow. The bank noted that Thursday’s lockup expiration will make 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%, though much of this may already be priced in. Conversely, Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 price target, citing strong operating performance despite the current share price of $111.80.

The divergence in analyst sentiment highlights the tension between long-term infrastructure investment and short-term liquidity pressures. With such massive capex projections looming, the market remains cautious about near-term cash flow sustainability. This marks a critical test of investor confidence in the company’s growth model.