20 global giants race for 1 trillion prediction market as Robinhood hits 588 million annual revenue

The global financial landscape is witnessing an unprecedented convergence of traditional brokerage firms, crypto exchanges, and sports betting platforms as they vie for dominance in the emerging prediction market sector. An executive from a major European or American financial institution emphasized the urgency of this shift, stating that missing the World Cup window could force a four-year wait for the next comparable opportunity. This sentiment reflects a broader industry realization that the trading demand generated by major sporting events represents a critical revenue stream. Even before the tournament commenced, a single prediction contract regarding the World Cup champion on Polymarket had already generated over 1.5 billion US dollars in trading volume. This surge marks a rapid transformation of the prediction market from a niche experiment into a highly competitive arena within the global finance industry.

In just one year, nearly 20 major entities have entered this space, including Fidelity Moomoo, Interactive Brokers, Hyperliquid, DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, OKX, Bitget Wallet, Crypto.com, Gemini, Kraken, Gate.io, and MEXC. The diversity of participants is rare in finance, uniting Wall Street brokers, sports betting operators, and blockchain protocols under a single growth narrative. Bernstein analysts project that the prediction market could exceed 1 trillion US dollars by 2030 as more individuals utilize trading to express opinions and assess probabilities. Woofun AI analysis suggests that the core strategic objective for these institutions is to control user trading interfaces, effectively positioning themselves as the 'toll booths' of the future financial system. The stakes extend far beyond the World Cup, targeting the next generation of financial entry points.

Coinbase has emerged as a primary beneficiary of this trend, with Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas describing the prediction market as one of the fastest-growing products in the company's history. Following a partnership with Kalshi in February 2026, Coinbase reported in its Q1 financial results on May 7 that the annual revenue from this business segment had already surpassed 100 million US dollars. This performance contrasts sharply with the fierce competition in spot and derivatives markets, highlighting the superior profitability and user retention rates of prediction markets. The industry was further shaken by the performance of Robinhood, which launched its Event Contracts Center in October 2026 through integration with Kalshi. Robinhood officially labeled this product line as its fastest-growing revenue source, reporting 12 billion event contract transactions and over 1 million users by the end of 2025.

Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that Robinhood's momentum accelerated significantly in early 2026, with daily trading volume reaching 8.8 billion contracts in the first quarter and monthly volume projected to hit 3 billion contracts in April. Based on a quarterly revenue of 147 million US dollars, Robinhood's annual revenue from event contracts could reach approximately 588 million US dollars. Barclays data further illustrates this traffic shift, noting that the nominal trading volume of the prediction market industry reached 25.7 billion US dollars in March 2026, representing roughly 16% of Coinbase's total spot trading volume for that quarter.

Concurrently, native protocols have seen valuations soar; Kalshi completed a Series F financing led by Coatue on May 7, 2026, raising 1 billion US dollars and achieving a valuation of 22 billion US dollars. Its annual trading volume jumped from 52 billion to 178 billion US dollars within six months, with institutional transactions increasing by 800% and annual revenue exceeding 1.5 billion US dollars.

Polymarket also secured a 600 million US dollar investment in March, pushing its valuation to 15 billion US dollars, with negotiations ongoing for an additional 400 million US dollars. According to DeFiLlama, Polymarket's trading volume since the start of 2026 reached 2.08 billion US dollars, with nominal volume at 4.65 billion US dollars and protocol revenue totaling 61.39 million US dollars. Other platforms like Predict.fun, Opinion, and Limitless recorded monthly trading volumes of 579 million, 376 million, and 205 million US dollars respectively in April 2026. Woofun AI notes that this ecosystem now includes nearly 20 major institutions that have either launched services or announced participation. A joint report by Bitget Wallet, Polymarket, and Dune Analytics reveals strong retail investor loyalty, with 82.8% of Polymarket's 1.29 million active wallets in Q1 2026 transacting less than 10,000 US dollars per trade. User engagement metrics improved significantly, with average active days rising from 2.5 to 9.9 and participation categories increasing from 1.45 to 2.34.

Regulatory dynamics have played a pivotal role in this expansion. In December 2025, Michael S. Selig became the 16th chairman of the CFTC, shifting the agency's stance to actively support the industry. The CFTC filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, and New York to counter state-level bans on prediction markets, arguing that federal law supersedes state gambling regulations. While the Third Circuit Court ruled in favor of federal precedence, other circuits remain reserved, potentially leading to a Supreme Court review. This regulatory clarity has enabled giants like Robinhood and Coinbase to leverage Kalshi as a backend licensed matching party, utilizing their vast user bases and fiat channels to facilitate transactions. Webull launched Kalshi contracts in February 2025, while Interactive Brokers integrated Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx into a unified interface in May 2026.

On the institutional side, Tradeweb partnered with Kalshi in February to integrate its data into a platform handling over 2.6 trillion US dollars in daily transactions. FalconX, Clear Street, and XP International also joined the compliant distribution network.

However, conflicts of interest are emerging as major players seek independence. Robinhood formed a joint venture called Rothera with Susquehanna in late 2025, acquiring MIAXdx to obtain full CFTC licenses including DCM, DCO, and SEF. After investing 14 million US dollars in Q1, Rothera launched on May 21 with 2.1 million US dollars in initial volume, quickly applying for football event certifications. This marks a shift from channel cooperation to direct competition with Kalshi. Similarly, Coinbase acquired The Clearing Company for over 100 million US dollars to build independent clearing capabilities.

Polymarket is diversifying its distribution by partnering with MetaMask and integrating with Bitget Wallet and Gate.io, while securing a 2 billion US dollar investment promise from Intercontinental Exchange. To reduce third-party dependence, Polymarket acquired DeFi infrastructure firm Brahma.

Meanwhile, Crypto.com launched OG.com with its own CFTC DCM license, becoming the first regulated platform to support parlay betting. Gemini enhanced clearing via Titan and Space Station, while Kraken's parent Payward acquired NinjaTrader for 1.5 billion US dollars and Bitnomial for 550 million US dollars. Fidelity's Moomoo obtained NFA approval in May to launch event contracts. On the innovation front, MEXC adopted a zero-commission strategy, and OKX released an open-source Agent Trade Kit for AI execution. Binance Wallet took an aggressive stance by covering all Gas fees for Predict.fun integration on April 9 and launching the Event Rush function with 42.space in late May, granting it full control over order flow and user data on the BNB Chain. These moves signal a strategic convergence where compliance-based models shift toward self-operated matching, while blockchain-based approaches aim to establish robust traffic barriers.