Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Digital has reduced its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate faces a critical shortage of floor time before the August recess. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, identified the absence of a unified Senate Banking-Agriculture text and a missing firm floor schedule as primary obstacles to moving the crypto market structure bill. Thorn clarified that this downgrade targets the bill's timing rather than its substance, noting that congressional competition for floor time intensified after US President Donald Trump canceled the signing of the bipartisan housing bill pending passage of the SAVE Act.

This adjustment follows a volatile trajectory in Galaxy's forecasting, which lowered its estimate from 75% to 60% on June 9 after previously raising it to 75% on May 22. The CLARITY Act is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17, aiming to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US despite facing criticism from Democrats and the banking industry. Critics argue the legislation permits crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without adhering to traditional financial requirements, creating a contentious political environment.

Woofun AI data shows the legislative window is further constrained by the US Senate's state work period until July 10 and an August recess set to begin on Aug. 8. Thorn noted that leadership attention is currently consumed by debates over the SAVE Act, Section 702 of FISA, and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027. These competing priorities suggest that even a bipartisan bill may lack sufficient floor time in a crowded Senate calendar, regardless of its merits.

The political landscape remains divided, with over 200 crypto companies urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in June while law enforcement and Catholic organizations expressed concerns about potential oversight gaps regarding illicit activity. This divergence highlights the difficulty of securing consensus when legislative bandwidth is already stretched thin by national security and fiscal mandates. The convergence of these factors signals a high risk that the bill will stall before the lawmakers leave Washington.