Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco @biancoresearch · 2026-08-29 17:17中性

1/2 tl:dr Right now, I think the FOMC vote on September 16th will be 7 - 5. I'm just now sure if it is 7 - 5 to hike or 7 - 5 to hold. --- I have argued that Trump's constant criticism of the Fed made them worry about their independence. So, the FOMC v

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Jim Bianco @biancoresearch · 2026-08-29 15:06中性

Rational Dissent Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? Financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand? Available on

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Jim Bianco @biancoresearch · 2026-08-28 14:31中性

1/2 "The Bond Market Can Stop Panicking When The Fed Starts Panicking" --- 3-day tick chart of the 30-year yield "Bond Traders are panicking a little less" https://t.co/XV1flvtQst

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3/3 The 5-year/5-year forward TIPS inflation breakeven rate is the 5-year average annual inflation rate over the next five years (the residual from the 10-year and 5-year TIPS inflation breakeven rates). So, it is what the market is expecting the inflatio

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2/3 The 5-year TIPS inflation breakeven rate is the market’s pricing of the average annual inflation rate over the next 5 years. It has averaged 73 basis points higher post-COVID (blue) than pre-GFC (red). Also note that the standard deviation range (sha

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1/3 In the thread linked below, I argue that the bond market is worried about inflation. I can hear the response that inflation swaps and/or TIPS Inflation Breakevens are not reflecting this. Maybe they are! 🧵

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