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tl:dr

Right now, I think the FOMC vote on September 16th will be 7 - 5.

I'm just now sure if it is 7 - 5 to hike or 7 - 5 to hold.

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I have argued that Trump's constant criticism of the Fed made them worry about their independence.

So, the FOMC voters have moved from waiting for the Fed chairman and the staff to come to them with the policy to 12 independent voters.

Fed watching is now vote tallying.

This is why yesterday's Jackson Hole speech "only" moved the probability of a hike to 58%, not 85+%. Warsh is only one of 12 votes, yes, the most influential, but the Fed is different now. He does not tell the other voters how to vote.