Mark@MRRydon5D
bullishOil has the crack spread. Soybeans have the crush spread. Compute needs one too.
The crack spread is the margin between crude oil and the gasoline and other fuels it's refined into. The crush spread is the margin between soybeans and the soy oil and meal they're crushed into.
For compute, I'd call it the crunch spread: what you earn turning a rented GPU into tokens, minus what the GPU-hour costs.
The trade is simple. Rent GPUs at the on-demand price, load an open-source model, and sell the tokens through OpenRouter or something like it. Whether that's profitable is the same question a refinery asks about crude and gasoline.
Today you can only see one leg in public, GPU rents. Token futures would price the other leg, and a daily token price index already exists as a start.
Refineries get built when the crack spread says they'll earn. A visible crunch spread would tell builders and lenders what an hour of GPU is worth once it's turned into tokens, not just what it rents for.
If token demand keeps outgrowing new capacity, I think that spread will explain why operators keep committing to more GPUs.
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