Nic Carter@nic_carter · 2 天前观点输出Checked my public equity portfolio https://t.co/4ALKsvQIZB
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 2 天前观点输出Excuse me
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 2 天前赛道影响Zucman is considered the most credentialed and elite academic supporting the notion of wealth taxes - the fact that he is outmatched intellectually by the average anon RW poster on here is telling; the socialists vainly try to establish an academic veneer for their schemes but at the end of the day it’s just about resentment and hatred of the successful and well turned out. There’s no genuine policy case for wealth taxes and Zucmans latest beclownment should show how thin the veil is
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 3 天前政策影响my best cybersecurity trading idea right now is buying a backup generator because I don't think we're that far away from an agentic attack on the grid
AI：偏政策推进，强调合规落地与规则明晰，对监管主线更敏感。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 3 天前观点输出this is gold's quantum FUD but it's way worse because you can't software update gold.
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 3 天前观点输出it's kind of funny to me that even mentioning a wealth tax (that will likely not pass) was kind of a magic spell that made things instantly worse for California.
congrats, or something.
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 3 天前市场影响If you put all the pieces together, the rise of AI suggests that the welfare state will collapse
- distribution of national income and corresponding tax base shifts from 70/30 labor/capital (current ratio) to something more in favor of capital. Doesn’t have to be 0/100. Maybe just 60/40.
- taxing capital is much harder because it is mobile - as recent examples have demonstrated
- AI exacerbates this by reducing headcount and making corporates even more mobile
- if the welfare states also do not control control production inputs (AI DC, GPUs), they have little capital assets to tax. They will respond by banning AI / requiring a human in the loop to rubber stamp / taxing foreign AI corporates via “fines”
- generally speaking countries with high welfare states also are not prime nexuses of capital formation (for obvious reasons), so this will be a perfect storm. Have to sustain huge expenditures and no domestic capital base to harvest
- response: welfare states won’t do nothing. Yes- they will ban AI, especially hard to tax foreign AI firms, and promote domestic champions + protect human white collar guilds. These are all uncompetitive measures and will further retard growth. This will put additional pressure on ability to finance welfare state.
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 4 天前市场影响this California wealth tax thing is just incredible.
so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time).
polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it).
there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate.
supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right?
well as it turns out, they did.
a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative.
proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave.
just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues.
but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion.
so when you add it all up you get:
+ $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated)
- $69b in present value of lost future income taxes
= - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax
of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time.
and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes.
[1]: https://t.co/1lbZgnMTG9
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 5 天前观点输出how hard is it to learn the otamatone https://t.co/9zZdSYLbaK
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Nic Carter@nic_carter · 5 天前观点输出anyone else watching MNF was that the worst national anthem rendition you've ever seen?
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
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