Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 2 天前赛道影响the ai trade is extremely uninteresting compared to crypto at this moment and by 2028 crypto will remind everyone who the greatest market on earth is
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 3 天前赛道影响bought more zcash and ready for the next round of re-rating
target for the cycle remains 5-10% of btc
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 4 天前赛道影响shower thought: public opposition to ai will flip 180 once physical ai reaches the masses.
for most ppl digital ai is either just a nice-to-have or an existential threat to their job. physical ai actually removes real stress from daily life.
case in point, tesla fsd has already had a bigger impact on mine than every chatbot combined (even tho the chatbots have been insanely valuable to me)
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 8 天前观点输出we can debate fundamentals all we want but ive seen charts like this maybe a hundred times and cant recall a single case this doesnt retrace 70% of the parabola https://t.co/fzh8cLRZj1
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 9 天前观点输出when valuing anthropic's ipo, don't forget to include p(boom) and p(doom) in ur ev calculus:
p(boom): they get us to infinite abundance, in which case money doesn't matter anymore
p(doom): they kill us all, in which case money doesn't matter anymore
i put p(boom or doom) at 50%
the other 50% is the boring middle, where we just keep going to work forever. tragically, that's the scenario where money still matters
therefore all price targets of anth must be discounted by 50%
AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 12 天前赛道影响by the time ur kids enter adulthood there will be nearly no moats left:
- intelligence commoditized by ai
- looking jacked and sexy commoditized by glp-1s and myostatin inhibitors
- agency and resilience commoditized by dopamine and prefrontal modulators
- being fun to be around commoditized by meta raybans which will give u jokes to tell in real time
the only moat left is having rich and powerful parents.
therefore ur job is to get rich and powerful.
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 13 天前赛道影响mathematicians' negative reaction towards ai is the epitome of ilya's quote "if you value intelligence above all other human qualities you’re gonna have a bad time"
of all domains, pure math is the purest form of intellectual pursuit, with virtually no immediate "real-world" impact. the moment ai surpasses human iq (the one dimension ai is optimized for), the ego of the ppl in the field get destroyed.
in almost all other fields, something other than (or in addition to) intellect is valued, like delighting customers, saving lives, or even making money. in math there's virtually none of this. ur identity is solely built on intellectual superiority.
saying this as a math major.
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 14 天前赛道影响if u r bearish because “ai breaks crypto”, one observation that should give u pause is that a looot of ppl seem to think this is a quantum computer story, when it’s in fact a classical algorithm story. i bet 99% of ppl who sold their coins don’t even know wtf the difference is.
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 15 天前赛道影响bears threw the kitchen sink (ai breaks cryptography, yields, oil, openai reves, ledger hack) and btc *checks prices* is green on the 24h
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Qiao Wang@qwqiao · 15 天前赛道影响over the next 5yrs, the probability of a us debt crisis and the probability of any individual tech company getting existentially disrupted by ai are materially higher than the probability of ai/quantum breaking crypto
so sell ur btc, but sell it into what? cash and bonds that are going to 0? or tech companies facing existing threats while also in a giant reflexive bubble? or yet something else that u did 2hrs of “due diligence” and convinced urself u understand?
the point is, if u r spooked by the ai/quantum risk and sold ur coins, u r almost certainly misjudging magnitude of this risk vs the risks of other assets u r sold ur coins into.
AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
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