Paul Almasi

Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/07/19观点输出

RT @chamath: There are two problems rn for crypto and, specifically, bitcoin bulls: 1) marginal liquidity would rather speculate in predic…

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AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/07/15政策影响

Been thinking about Sutton’s Bitter Lesson in a context nobody’s really applying it to: IP law. His whole thesis is that general methods running on scale and compute always beat human-crafted, hand-tuned approaches. Every time. Chess, Go, vision, language, doesn’t matter the domain, brute-force search and learning wins over people trying to encode their own cleverness into the system. Now apply that to intellectual property. If agents can run discovery and refinement loops 24/7, continuously optimizing toward whatever the “best” version of an idea, a drug, a design, a piece of code actually is, at some point the thing patent law was built to protect (a discrete, ownable, human-originated insight) stops looking like how the best IP actually gets made. So you’re left with a fork. Either patent and IP protection in the US stays basically as is, and gets quietly run around by whoever’s compute-rich enough to just out-discover it. Or the law itself has to change to deal with AI-native discovery, which means redefining who owns what came out of a machine loop, retroactively, for IP that already exists. That second path is the one people aren’t pricing in. Because if you change the rules on what counts as ownable after the fact, you’re not just updating patent law. You’re greenlighting the state’s ability to unwind property rights that were granted in good faith.

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/07/15赛道影响

RT @JohannKerbrat: About two weeks in and Robinhood Chain’s growth continues with companies like @alchemy @morpho @rialto_xyz and @trmlabs.…

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/07/12观点输出

@mert Agreed

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/07/02政策影响

The @RobinhoodApp Chain mainnet went live yesterday and @Alchemy is one of the core infra integrations underneath it. Proud of this one, it’s the kind of partnership we’ve been building toward for years. The part I’d actually pay attention to isn’t the chain itself. It’s the shape of the thing. Stock tokens in 120+ countries trading 24/7. A 7% stablecoin yield built into a self-custody wallet. Agentic accounts where you plug your own AI model into their trading stack. Gas covered for 90 days to pull builders in. It’s more than a brokerage adding crypto. Everyone spent five years asking when TradFi would come onchain. It’s not coming. It’s here, and it brought 26 million funded accounts with it.

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/06/29观点输出

couldn't agree more

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AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/06/17赛道影响

Everyone's reading today the same way: Warsh came in hawkish, dots show a hike, cuts are dead for the year. I'll take the other side. I think they cut, and the way he structured this announcement is the tell. Warsh has said for years he wants the Fed to talk less, vaguer guidance, stop pre-committing to a path. So when the dots printed hawkish, everyone read conviction. I read room to move. Once you stop telegraphing, you can go any direction next and call it data-dependent instead of a U-turn. That's not an accident. That's the whole point of the new comms regime. Now put oil on top of it. It's falling fast, Iran deal, Hormuz back open, the energy spike that drove this entire inflation scare is unwinding while we watch. That spike is the only reason he got to sound tough today. And it's already leaving. So the hawkish print isn't a forecast to me. It's air cover. He looks like an inflation hawk on day one, oil does the easing for him over the next few months, and when he finally cuts he points at the data and never has to say he changed his mind.

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/06/17政策影响

Second order thing that most people aren’t connecting. The Iran deal everyone’s trading as geopolitics is also a Fed story. Oil came down hard this week. That pulls some inflation pressure off, which is exactly the cover the Fed needs to sit still instead of leaning hawkish. So the peace deal doesn’t just move energy names, it buys Warsh some air cover on his first day in the chair.

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/06/16赛道影响

So SpaceX bought Cursor for 60 billion. They signed this as an option back in April. Either do the deal or pay 10 billion to walk away. Then they just… waited. Went through the whole IPO, let the stock list and run up, and only after that flipped the option into a real merger. So Cursor gets paid in SpaceX shares, priced off wherever the stock’s trading the week before it closes. I keep coming back to the order of operations. They took the company public, and then four days later used the new stock to pay for an acquisition they’d already lined up months ago. The IPO basically created the currency they’re spending here. Maybe that’s just good treasury work. But it’s a lot of moving pieces in a very specific sequence, and I don’t think that’s an accident.

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Paul Almasi@LucidMasi · 2026/06/15赛道影响

The French wine tariff threat is a cleaner lesson in leverage than most M&A deals I've seen. Trump doesn't actually care about wine. He cares about France's 3% digital tax on US tech. So he reaches for the thing France can't afford to lose, its luxury exports, and squeezes there. You don't attack where the fight is. You attack where it hurts. Macron said no anyway, which is its own kind of tell. Either he's confident, or he's decided looking weak costs more than the tariff does.

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。