#BTC多空平衡与波动率触底

NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming? $BTC may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation 8:10 Time-Based Selloff 13:07 Searching for Demand 16:13 Miners Under Pressure 18:45 Strategy and Saylor 21:25 Iran and Oil Risk 28:28 AI Speculation Peaks 34:06 Macro or On-Chain? 37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch 41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook

🚨 NEW: Bitcoin dips but recovers after Strategy dumps 3,888 $BTC. Bitcoin's realized profit and loss ratio falls to a 43-month low of -0.35, a figure that signals a market bottom says CryptoQuant. Hodler's Digest via Cointelegraph Magazine https://t.co/xdcmytcwLK

Bitcoin Spot Trading Volume Falls to Lowest Level Since 2019 Glassnode said Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis yield has stayed below the U.S. two-year Treasury yield since February, marking only the second prolonged inversion on record and pushing institutions toward cash and government bonds. Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, while exchange flows and spot ETF demand remain subdued. BTC is trading within a major cost-basis cluster between $62,000 and $68,000, with $69,000 as key resistance. Glassnode said the current bear market is the shallowest on record by drawdown, but has not lasted long enough to confirm a bottom, while its model remains mildly “Risk Off.”

Bitcoin likely bottoms in early October. That's the call from veteran trader Peter Brandt, who points to Bitcoin's historically consistent 80%+ bear market corrections and today's neutral sentiment as his evidence. Not so sure about his price target (as low as the high 40s), but the $38K worst case keeps looking less likely as the calendar moves on. But who knows, this is crypto and surprises are part of the game. So, do you think the bottom is already in, or are we bottoming later this year?

Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience https://t.co/uTLudDqtW1

Was July $58k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here? Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $58k?

Bitcoin has gone 20-30% below realized price every previous bear market https://t.co/dWEGJHI58V

Bitcoin has broken out of its daily downtrend for the first time in two months. For momentum to continue, BTC needs to break through $64,500–$65,500 resistance zone and hold above it. BTC is forming a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which could signal further upside if confirmed. July-Aug summer pump?