Analyst Asserts Strategy Remains Far From Forced Liquidation Despite STRC Depeg Concerns

Murphy argues Strategy faces no solvency crisis, noting Bitcoin must drop to $26,000 to breach preferred stock. He labels the STRC depeg a leverage repricing, not a UST-style collapse, with recovery tied to BTC trends.

Per Woofun AI, analyst Murphy disclosed that Strategy is not currently facing a preferred stock solvency crisis. He calculated that Bitcoin would need to retreat to $26,000 to breach the preferred stock tier, or fall to $8,000 to trigger debt tier breaches. Murphy observed that while the similar product SATA remained above $99 this week, STRC experienced a depeg, suggesting market pressure targets Strategy specifically rather than indicating a product design flaw.

Murphy characterized the situation as a repricing of leverage and credit, driven by liquidity contraction from cash reserve depletion and amplified signals from the first-ever sale of Bitcoin. He emphasized that Strategy remains distant from forced liquidation, though its 'flywheel model' has temporarily stalled at current price levels. The future trajectory of Bitcoin will determine if this represents a mid-cycle adjustment or deeper risks. Murphy concluded that comparing the STRC depeg to the UST depeg and LUNA collapse constitutes a clear overreaction, noting that Strategy could restore cash reserves and restart its capital operation model if Bitcoin prices recover and equity ATM financing resumes.