Analysis of Token Flow on Stablecoin Chains (Issue 1 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Value and Rankings of Stablecoins

With July 3, 2024, as the data benchmark date, the stablecoin market is undergoing structural transformation. The prices of the three major stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—all remain anchored at $1.00, with 24-hour volatility staying within an extremely low range of 0.0% to -0.0%, indicating that short-term price stability has not been disrupted by any macroeconomic events. However, the market’s value structure is facing severe challenges. The Open Standard Alliance has brought together 140 institutions to launch OUSD, aiming to reshape the $100 billion stablecoin market and directly threaten the profit models of existing issuers.

The core conflict in the current market centers on changes to the reserve income distribution mechanism. OUSD promises to shift reserve interest from issuers to distribution channels and adopt a zero-fee policy, resulting in Circle’s stock price dropping by 16.5% in a single day and the market value of USDC shrinking to $740 billion. This development marks the entry of the stablecoin sector into a phase of ultimate interest competition between distributors and issuers. The traditional model, under which issuers reaped all reserve benefits, is now under pressure from both regulatory frameworks and alliances of major players. Meanwhile, Tether abandoned its application for a license in the EU due to concerns that MiCA regulations might cause 60% of its reserves to flow into unsecured small banks, further highlighting the profound impact of regulatory policies on the security and liquidity of stablecoin reserves.

On the application side, businesses are increasingly relying on stablecoins. 42% of companies already use stablecoins for cross-border settlements, with the penetration rate expected to soar to 88% within the next 12 months, thereby reducing cross-border payment costs by 35%. Although there has been net outflow from spot ETFs, there is a daily average inflow of $42 million worth of U.S. stocks on blockchain, indicating that stablecoins are playing an increasingly important role as alternatives for cross-border capital flows. As 140 major players compete to claim a share of the trillion-dollar interest pool, the stablecoin market is evolving from a simple tool for value anchoring to a critical hub for income distribution and payment infrastructure development.

02Exchange Flow Analysis

Data on on-chain capital flows shows that crypto exchanges are absorbing regulatory-related demand through on-chain U.S. stock products, with an average daily net inflow of $42 million, thereby reshaping the patterns of cross-border capital movement. At the institutional level, 140 major firms have jointly launched a new stablecoin project aimed at shifting reserve interest earnings from issuers to distribution channels, directly challenging existing business models. Regarding politically connected funds, Trump’s cold wallet holds over $50 million in Bitcoin and tens of millions in Ethereum, with his crypto-related income reaching $1.427 billion in 2025, of which Ethereum contributed over $150 million. Vance’s disclosure of his Bitcoin holdings for the first time further highlights new dimensions in high-level digital asset allocation. Strategy received authorization to sell $1.25 billion worth of assets, breaking the long-standing rule of holding assets for the long term, indicating that institutions are adjusting their holding strategies amid changing dynamics in the stablecoin market.

03Distribution of Stablecoins across Different Chains

Distribution of Stablecoins Across Different Chains

The current stablecoin market remains highly anchored, with the prices of the three major stablecoins all staying around $1.00, showing minimal fluctuations within 24 hours. Market liquidity is characterized as neutral. Both USDT and USDC are priced at $1.00, with a 24-hour price change of +0.0%; DAI also remains at $1.00, with a slight 24-hour fluctuation of -0.0%. The overall market sentiment index stands at 47/100, indicating a neutral level, which suggests no signs of severe panic or enthusiasm in capital flows on these chains.

In terms of distribution across different chains, it is not possible to quantify the proportion of capital migration between various public chains due to the lack of specific data on on-chain transaction volumes and cross-chain bridge traffic. The available data only confirms that the major stablecoins maintain high price consistency, with no signs of de-anchoring caused by on-chain congestion or liquidity shortages. The market sentiment score of 47/100 further underscores that funds are currently on the sidelines, and there is no emerging trend of large-scale capital transfers on these chains.

04Outlook and Recommendations

Operational Recommendations

• Maintain a neutral position structure and avoid aggressive directional bets
  Given that the AI overall sentiment score remains in the neutral range of 47/100, and the 24-hour price changes for the three major stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—are all at 0.0% or -0.0%, there is no clear directional momentum in the market. It is recommended to keep the current position structure for the next 2 weeks, adopting a “moderately defensive” strategy. Only make minor adjustments when prices deviate significantly, and strictly avoid large-scale buying or selling decisions based on fluctuations in the sentiment score.

• Leverage high liquidity periods to improve capital efficiency
  Currently, the 24-hour trading volume for USDT is as high as $60.5B, while that for USDC is $12.8B, indicating ample liquidity on the chain. If there is an abnormal surge in the flow of stablecoins on the chain within the next week (e.g., daily trading volume deviates by more than 20% from the current average), it can be seen as a signal for portfolio reallocation. In such cases, adopt a “phased buying” or “gradual selling” approach to take advantage of high liquidity and reduce slippage costs, rather than forcing trades during periods of low liquidity.

• Monitor the risk of liquidity disparity among decentralized stablecoins
  The 24-hour trading volume for DAI is currently only $0.2B, far lower than that of USDT and USDC. If DAI’s trading volume does not increase significantly this month and its price remains fixed at $1.00, it indicates insufficient liquidity depth. Investors holding DAI positions are advised to set up “liquidity alerts”: once the bid-ask spread for DAI on major decentralized exchanges expands to more than twice the normal level, they should prioritize “gradual selling” to avoid potential risks such as depegging or difficulties in liquidating holdings.

Risk Warnings

• Risk of sentiment indicator dulling
  If the AI overall sentiment score stays locked at 47/100 without any fluctuations across three consecutive monitoring periods (e.g., from 07-07 06:08 onward), it may indicate that the market has entered a stalemate. Be vigilant against sudden “black swan” events that could cause an immediate reversal in sentiment.

• Stablecoin depegging and liquidity mismatch
  Although the current prices of USDT, USDC, and DAI are all at $1.00, if a particular coin—especially one with low trading volume—experiences a price deviation of more than 0.5% within 24 hours accompanied by abnormal trading volume, an immediate risk response mechanism should be activated to prevent cascading effects resulting from liquidity depletion.

• Amplified volatility under neutral market sentiment
  In a neutral sentiment environment, the market tends to be sensitive to macroeconomic news. If unexpected regulatory or macroeconomic events occur within the next 2 weeks, it could trigger severe fluctuations in the otherwise stable stablecoin market. It is essential to establish strict stop-loss triggers.

05Related Reads

1. “Big Players Unite to Issue Cryptocurrencies: Can OUSD Redefine the Trillion-Dollar Stablecoin Landscape?”
2. “140 Giants Team Up to Issue Cryptocurrencies; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16% in One Day”
3. “Coinbase Partners with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; The Race Behind Circle’s 16% Stock Drop”
4. “Reserves at Risk for Small Banks: Tether Refuses EU Licensing”
5. “Cross-Border Payment Costs Drop by 35%; Enterprise Use of Stablecoins Soars”
6. “Regulations Target Cross-Border Brokers; On-Chain US Stocks Attract $42 Million Daily”
7. “140 Giants Team Up to Claim Trillions in Interest Revenue; Stablecoin Landscape Changes”
8. “Five Million Bitcoins Hidden in Cold Wallets: Trump’s Assets Revealed”
9. “Trump Invests Heavily in Cryptocurrencies Worth $1.4 Billion; Vance Reveals His Bitcoin Holdings”
10. “Strategy Breaks New Ground by Selling Cryptocurrencies; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Crypto-Political Gamble in 2026”