Analysis of Token Flow on Stablecoin Chains (Issue 2 · Week 29, 2026)

01Market Value and Rankings of Stablecoins

Taking 2026-07-17 as the reference date, the stablecoin market exhibits significant stratification in market value and differences in liquidity. USDT holds the top position in the industry with a total market value of $184B, featuring high 24-hour trading volume of $43.6B and a current price of $0.9992, demonstrating exceptional liquidity absorption capabilities for payment purposes. USDC has a market value of $73B, a current price of $1, and a 24-hour trading volume of $10.9B. Although it leads in terms of supply volume, its business model is facing structural challenges. DAI boasts a market value of $5B, a current price of $0.9999, and a 24-hour trading volume of $167.4M. As a representative of decentralized stablecoins, it has a relatively small scale but maintains stable ecosystem loyalty.

Looking at the evolution of the competitive landscape, the core conflict in the stablecoin industry has shifted from mere expansion of issuance volume to a struggle for control over infrastructure and distribution channels. Circle revealed in its 2025 financial report that distribution costs associated with Coinbase amounted to $1.4 billion, consuming more than half of its revenue, leaving it in a situation where it led in supply yet saw its profits eroded. Meanwhile, JPMorgan lowered its profit forecasts for Circle due to the impact of the Hyperliquid protocol and OUSD, arguing that distribution channels had taken away its bargaining power and that the independent issuer model was coming to an end. This “prisoner’s dilemma” was further confirmed by reports on 07-15: despite being the industry leader, Circle became essentially a “employee” of Coinbase due to high channel fees, with a portion of every dollar in profit going first to the exchange.

In contrast, USDT has established a dual-track division of labor with USDC in the field of DeFi settlements, thanks to its absolute advantage in the payment sector. Faced with the staggering annual trading volume of stablecoins reaching 33 trillion dollars, traditional banks like JPMorgan are collaborating with TCH to build a tokenized deposit network, aiming to replicate the Zelle model to defend their market share in payments. Additionally, Visa launched an enterprise-level stablecoin platform on 07-16, integrating mainstream currencies such as OUSD to connect 15,000 institutions and 200 million merchants, thus accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto assets. Against this backdrop, the ranking of stablecoins in terms of market value not only reflects the scale of capital involved but also reveals the intense competition among issuers over regulatory compliance, channel fees, and control over underlying infrastructure.

02Exchange Flow Analysis

As of the reference date of 2026-07-17, there is a clear divergence in the movements of large-scale Whale investors and institutional funds on the blockchain. Although there is a lack of real-time data on direct net inflows into exchanges or large-scale transfers, the logic behind institutional behavior can be inferred from recent major events. BlackRock is leveraging its BUIDL government bond tokenization initiative and Aladdin risk management system to shift from the ETF sector toward gaining control over on-chain collateral and pricing power, thereby building an underlying operating system for the crypto world. This trend indicates that traditional financial giants are increasingly investing in on-chain infrastructure, with their capital flows leaning more toward long-term asset holding and control rather than short-term speculation.

Meanwhile, the competitive dynamics among stablecoin issuers significantly influence the distribution of funds. Although Circle received final approval from the OCC to establish a national trust bank, marking a shift in competition toward control over custody and settlement infrastructure, its $1.4 billion in costs associated with distributing Coinbase tokens consumed more than half of its revenue, highlighting the loss of bargaining power of independent issuers in terms of distribution channels. This profit dilemma may reduce institutions’ willingness to retain funds within the USDC ecosystem, prompting them to seek more cost-effective settlement options.

This development suggests that institutional funds are entering the stablecoin payment space through compliant channels rather than engaging in speculation via highly leveraged derivatives. Additionally, Tether’s cooperation with U.S. authorities to freeze nearly $500 million in Iranian-linked wallets, using stablecoin blacklisting mechanisms to cut off dollar-based transactions, further underscores the regulatory sensitivity surrounding stablecoins in cross-border capital flows. Faced with compliance risks, institutional funds prefer to use regulated custody services, such as Circle’s newly licensed trust bank services, to avoid similar sanctions risks.

In summary, institutional funds are shifting from merely holding stablecoins to taking control of underlying settlement infrastructure and compliant custody services, while retail funds may flow toward more liquid payment networks due to rising channel costs and regulatory uncertainties. BlackRock’s efforts to develop an on-chain operating system, coupled with Visa’s integration of enterprise-level platforms, both point to a trend toward more institutionalized and compliant flow of stablecoin funds.

03Distribution of Stablecoins across Different Chains

Data from the benchmark date of 2026-07-17 shows that the stablecoin market exhibits significant differences in its on-chain distribution. USDT holds an absolute dominant position with a market value of $184B. Its 24-hour trading volume reached $43.6B, with a current price of $0.9992 and a 24-hour price change of -0.0%. USDC has a market value of $73B, a current price of $1, a 24-hour trading volume of $10.9B, and a 24-hour price change of +0.0%, indicating high liquidity stability. DAI has a market value of $5B, a current price of $0.9999, a 24-hour trading volume of $167.4M, and a 24-hour price change of -0.0%, maintaining a specific niche among decentralized stablecoins.

From the perspective of on-chain distribution, USDT’s high trading volume and large share of the market value indicate that it has the highest efficiency in circulation across major public blockchains and exchanges, serving as the primary medium for cross-chain arbitrage and trading pairs. USDC maintains stable capital accumulation within compliant on-chain ecosystems thanks to its $10.9B daily trading volume. The precision of its price anchoring (current price of $1) reflects the market’s trust in the transparency of its reserve assets. Although DAI has a smaller market value, the ratio of its $167.4M trading volume to its $5B market value suggests active rebalancing needs within DeFi protocols. The overall market sentiment score is 43/100 (fear), indicating that in a low-volatility environment, funds tend to allocate assets in stablecoins for low-risk purposes rather than switching to high-risk assets.

04Outlook and Recommendations

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-17

Operational Recommendations

1. Liquidity Monitoring and Phased Position Building Strategy Given that the 24-hour trading volume of USDT is as high as $43.6B, while that of USDC is $10.9B, the market possesses sufficient trading depth to support large-scale capital inflows and outflows. If a continuous increase in net inflows of stablecoins into major exchanges is observed, coupled with sharp drops in BTC or ETH prices that are not driven by fundamental factors, it can be seen as an opportunity for buying undervalued assets due to short-term liquidity surplus. It is recommended to build positions in core assets in phases over the next 2 weeks, taking advantage of the high liquidity environment, and avoid large transactions during periods of low trading volume to reduce slippage risks.

2. Counterintuitive Emotional Investing and Moderate Defense Strategy Currently, the overall AI sentiment score is only 43/100, indicating a “fear” level. Historical data shows that when market sentiment enters the fear zone while the market value of stablecoins remains stable, short-term rebound opportunities often arise. It is suggested that if the sentiment index drops further below 40 within this week, investors can moderately increase their exposure to risk assets. However, if sentiment rapidly rises above 60 into the greed zone, caution should be exercised regarding the potential outflow of short-term profit-taking investors, and a moderate defense strategy should be adopted to lock in some profits.

3. Hedging Against Stablecoin Decoupling Risks Although the current prices of USDT at $0.9992, USDC at $1, and DAI at $0.9999 are all very close to their anchor values, the risk of stablecoin decoupling still exists under extreme market volatility. It is recommended that within the next 2 weeks, if the price of any major stablecoin deviates from its anchor value by more than 0.5% (i.e., USDT/USDC/DAI falls below $0.995 or rises above $1.005), a risk hedging mechanism should be activated immediately. Some positions should be shifted to other highly liquid assets or fiat channels to avoid potential liquidity crunch risks.

Risk Warnings

1. Liquidity Trap Risk Despite the high trading volumes of USDT and USDC currently, if extreme panic sets in the market, exchanges may suspend withdrawals or restrict large transactions, resulting in a significant gap between nominal liquidity and actual available liquidity. Trigger conditions for warnings: delays in withdrawing stablecoins from major exchanges exceeding 24 hours or widespread withdrawal congestion.

2. Flash Crash Caused by Extreme Sentiment Although the current sentiment score of 43/100 indicates fear, if it deteriorates sharply to below 20 in the short term, it could trigger a chain reaction of algorithmic trading and leverage liquidations, leading to an irrational flash crash in the market. Trigger conditions for warnings: a drop of more than 15 points in the sentiment index within 24 hours, accompanied by a price decline of over 5% in major cryptocurrencies.

3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks for Stablecoins As the cornerstone of market liquidity, changes in regulatory policies regarding stablecoins can directly affect market confidence. Negative regulatory news targeting Tether or Circle could cause significant fluctuations in the market value of stablecoins. Trigger conditions for warnings: major stablecoin issuers releasing significant compliance announcements or facing investigations by regulatory authorities, accompanied by substantial deviations in stablecoin prices from their anchor values.

05Related Reads

1. “USDC Supply Leads, but Profits Are Eroded: Circle’s $1.4 Billion Cost”
2. “800 Daily Active Users, Yet Monthly Profits Exceed 100 Million? The Issuance Right Turns into a Prisoner’s Dilemma”
3. “Why Do Profits Flow to Coinbase First for Every Dollar Printed of USDC?”
4. “Divergent Daily Activity and Giants’ Shifts: USDT for Payments, USDC for Settlements, and Strategy’s Exception”
5. “Trillion-Dollar Stablecoins Under Pressure; U.S. Banking Sector Unites to Replicate Zelle as a Countermeasure”
6. “Visa Integrates with 200 Million Merchants: Enterprise Stablecoin Platforms Reshape Payments”
7. “BlackRock’s Secret Takeover: From ETF Bait to On-Chain Infrastructure”
8. “Circle Gets Federal Trust Approval: Stablecoin Competition Shifts from Issuance to Infrastructure Control”
9. “Nearly $500 Million Frozen: Tether Becomes a New Tool for U.S. Sanctions Against Iran”