Daily Summary of KOL Opinions (Issue 5 · Week 28, 2026)

01Popular opinions from KOLs

2026-07-11

This week, KOL opinions have focused on the escalating geopolitical tensions that are causing volatility in the crypto market, with macroeconomic uncertainty becoming the dominant theme. There is a significant divide among BTC supporters: among 27 KOLs, 55% are bullish while 43% are bearish, indicating intense competition between the two camps. In contrast, SOL and ETH tend to be viewed more optimistically, with 81% of KOLs being bullish on SOL and 64% on ETH, reflecting differences in strength among mainstream assets.

Extreme sentiment signals can be seen in the meme sector, where BONK faced unanimous bearish views from 5 KOLs, resulting in a 100% bearish rate and highlighting heavy selling pressure in this sector. Meanwhile, CASHCAT received full bullish support from 3 KOLs, yielding a 100% bullish rate, creating a sharp contrast.

The market sentiment index experienced severe fluctuations, soaring from 14.2 to 50.1 before dropping sharply to 36.2. It is currently in the fear zone, with an AI overall sentiment score of 40/100. Whale activity on the blockchain increased by 60 points, coupled with a dramatic shift toward bullishness among KOLs (a change of +85.0 percentage points in the bullish-bearish gap), suggesting that large amounts of capital may be accumulating at lower prices, and FOMO risks are on the rise.

02Long/Short Sentiment Analysis

On 2026-07-11, the market sentiment index stood at 40/100, indicating a fearful mood. Among the top topics, heightened geopolitical tensions driving volatility in the crypto market, upgrades and active financing in DeFi protocols, geopolitical conflicts pushing up gold and energy prices, divergent capital flows into BTC ETFs and adjustments in institutional holdings, and AI computing power demands boosting infrastructure investment were all ranked as the most significant issues. In terms of KOL opinions, 55% were bullish on BTC while 43% were bearish; 81% were bullish on SOL with 14% bearish; 64% were bullish on ETH and 29% bearish. For USDT, 54% were bullish and 46% bearish; 100% of those covering BONK were bearish; 75% were bullish on BNB; 100% were bullish on CASHCAT; 67% were bullish on HYPE; 67% were bullish on OP; and 88% were bullish on XRP. Overall, there is a pattern of increasing divergence among mainstream assets, extreme pessimism in the meme coin sector, and optimistic sentiment regarding some altcoins.

03Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-11

Operational Recommendations

1. Phased Investment Strategy During Emotional Reversal Periods (Time Frame: This Week) Given the sharp fluctuations in the market sentiment index, which rose from 14.2 to 50.1 (neutral) before dropping sharply by 15.6 points to 36.2 (fear) [Source], such extreme emotional swings often lead to short-term mispricings of assets. If the current BTC price remains around $64,119.00 without breaking below key support levels, investors are advised to take advantage of the low-sentiment period to build positions in BTC and ETH in phases. The execution criteria should be aligned with signals indicating a surge in Whale activity on the blockchain by 46–60 points [Source]. As long as continuous net inflows from Whales are observed and the sentiment index stays within the 35–45 range, investors can gradually increase their holdings to capture gains from the subsequent recovery in sentiment.

2. Defensive Holding Strategy When There’s a Discrepancy Between KOL Consensus and Market Sentiment (Time Frame: Next 2 Weeks) Although KOL consensus has shifted sharply to bullish, with the bullish-bear gap increasing by 85.0 percentage points (currently 70% bullish / 15% bearish) [Source], the overall market still remains in a fearful state (40/100). This divergence between “extremely optimistic KOL views” and “fearful market sentiment” usually indicates heightened short-term volatility. It is recommended to adopt a moderate defensive strategy for highly volatile assets such as SOL and DOGE. If SOL’s current price of $77.83 experiences a significant drop driven by increased trading volume (an increase of over 20% based on a 24h volume of $1.7B), and the bullish sentiment among KOLs does not translate into actual buying pressure (i.e., the price fails to stabilize), investors should consider reducing their positions to avoid risks associated with a breakdown in consensus.

3. Asset Selection Amidst Liquidity Mismatches (Time Frame: This Month) According to token rating data, BTC has a liquidity score of only 23, while its token economy score is as high as 98 [Source], indicating solid long-term value but relatively insufficient short-term liquidity. In comparison, BNB has a liquidity score of 21 and a token economy score of 98 [Source]. Investors are advised to prioritize assets with a token economy score above 90 and a fundamental score above 60 when allocating to core assets (such as BTC, BNB, and DOT). If DOT’s current price of $0.88 experiences a technical breakout (with a technical score of 80), investors may consider increasing their holdings moderately, but they should be cautious about the slippage risk posed by its liquidity score of 36 and avoid large transactions during periods of low liquidity.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Sudden Collapse Due to Rapid Emotional Shifts The market sentiment index has experienced drastic fluctuations from 14.2 to 50.1 and then to 36.2 in a short period of time [Source], indicating extreme market sensitivity. If the sentiment index drops below 30 again, entering a state of extreme fear, it could trigger a chain reaction of algorithmic trading and leverage liquidations. Warning triggers include a daily decline in the sentiment index of more than 10 points, coupled with abnormally high 24h trading volume for BTC.

2. Risk of Disconnection Between KOL Opinions and Fundamental Conditions Although KOL consensus has shifted sharply to bullish (with a bullish-bear gap of +85.0 percentage points) [Source], it is important to note that in historical cases, KOL opinions may be influenced by vested interests or delayed information (such as the incident where Polymarket KOLs denied accusations of insider trading [Source]). If the bullish proportion among KOLs remains high for an extended period but prices fail to rise accordingly, investors should be alert to the possibility of a “bull trap.” Warning triggers include a bullish proportion among KOLs exceeding 75% for more than 3 days, yet BTC price failing to break above $65,000.

3. Uncertainty in Whale Capital Flow Patterns A surge in Whale activity on the blockchain by 46–60 points [Source] may indicate large-scale capital inflows, but it could also reflect position adjustments or hedging activities by major players. If an increase in Whale activity is accompanied by falling prices, it might suggest that these major players are distributing their holdings. Warning triggers include two consecutive days of rising Whale activity, along with simultaneous price declines of more than 2% for both BTC and ETH.

04Related Reads

1. “Polymarket KOL Denies Allegations of Insider Trading”