Daily Summary of KOL Opinions (Issue 11 · Week 29, 2026)

01Popular opinions from KOLs

2026-07-17

This week, the focus of KOL opinions centered on the impact of macroeconomic data on the crypto market, with European CPI figures meeting expectations acting as a key catalyst. The stance toward BTC is moderately bullish, with 51% of the 25 KOLs being bullish and 25% bearish, indicating a relatively balanced view; sentiment toward ETH is even more optimistic, as 65% of KOLs are bullish while only 23% are bearish, reflecting a recovery in confidence among major assets. Regarding SOL, 43% are bullish while 54% hold a neutral stance, suggesting a strong mood of hesitation in the market. Notably, CASHCAT saw 100% unanimous bullish sentiment, whereas OPENAI-related assets exhibited a cautious attitude with 75% neutral and 25% bearish, indicating a cooling interest in the AI sector.

The divergence between bulls and bears shows distinct patterns between BTC and ETH: the ratio of bulls to bears for BTC is close to 2:1, while for ETH it reaches nearly 3:1, suggesting that funds expect a stronger short-term rebound in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. In terms of FOMO indicators, the activity level on Whale chains surged by 46 points to 60, coupled with the market sentiment index rising sharply from 14.2 to 36.0 points, reaching 50.1 (neutral range), indicating that large-scale capital is accumulating at lower levels, which could trigger short-term price rallies. However, another set of data shows that the sentiment index dropped sharply by 15.6 points to 36.2 (fear range), reflecting intense market volatility, and investors need to be wary of potential sentiment reversals. Overall, positive macro trends and the entry of Whales are boosting bullish momentum, but high volatility demands strict position management.

02Long/Short Sentiment Analysis

Social Trend Analysis as of 2026-07-17

The current market sentiment index stands at 42/100, indicating a fearful mood. In terms of trending topics, updates on the Upbit exchange, comprehensive news regarding Robinhood Chain, RWA tokenization, regulations on Thai stablecoins, and macroeconomic factors influencing crypto markets are all tied for the highest popularity.

KOL opinions show divergence. Among the 25 KOLs in the BTC space, 51% are bullish, 25% are bearish, and 24% remain neutral. Sentiment around ETH is relatively optimistic, with 65% of the 8 KOLs being bullish, 23% bearish, and 12% neutral. For SOL, 43% of the 8 KOLs are bullish, 54% are neutral, and only 4% are bearish. CASHCAT received unanimous bullish views from all 3 KOLs. In the OPENAI sector, 75% of the 4 KOLs are neutral, while 25% are bearish. KOLs related to ELON, MICROSOFT, and TRUMP all maintain a 100% neutral stance. For USDC, 67% of the 3 KOLs are bullish, and 33% are bearish. Among the 3 KOLs focused on Ethereum, 60% are bullish and 40% are bearish. Overall, the bidding war between bulls and bears persists among mainstream assets, while sentiment for some niche assets has become extreme.

03Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Report Date: 2026-07-17

Operational Recommendations

1. Phased Investment Strategy Based on Extreme Market Sentiment (Timeframe: This Week) The current market sentiment index is in the Fear zone at 42/100. Recent alerts have shown a sudden surge of 46 points and 60 points in Whale activity on the blockchain, indicating that large funds are accumulating positions at lower prices. Given that the current BTC price is $62,937.00 with a 7-day decline of only -1.6%, if BTC prices fall further below $62,000 accompanied by declining trading volume, it could be seen as an opportunity for phased investment due to overreaction in sentiment. Conversely, if the sentiment index rises rapidly above 50, it is advisable to postpone further investments until the trend becomes clearer.

2. Moderate Defensive Strategy Based on Shift in KOL Consensus (Timeframe: Next 2 Weeks) There has been a sharp shift toward bullish sentiment among KOLs, with the bullish-bear spread increasing by 85.0 percentage points, resulting in bulls holding 70% of the market view. Such extreme consistency often signals short-term selling pressure from profit-taking investors. If ETH’s current price of $1,833.14 rebounds by more than 3% within 24 hours, along with a sustained bullish sentiment rate above 75% among KOLs, it is recommended to take moderate defensive actions by reducing holdings in highly volatile altcoins (such as SOL and HYPE, which have seen 7-day declines of over 5%) to lock in some profits and avoid losses from a reversal in consensus.

3. Asset Rotation Strategy Based on Liquidity Differences (Timeframe: This Month) Comparing the liquidity of major cryptocurrencies, BTC scores 25, ETH scores 30, while some low-cap tokens score as high as 94–95 (such as AR and CASHCAT). In volatile markets, assets with low liquidity are vulnerable to large orders. If overall market trading volume (e.g., BTC’s 24h trading volume of $24.1B) declines significantly, it is suggested to shift investment focus toward highly liquid assets like BTC and ETH. If trading volume increases and the sentiment index exceeds 50, a small portion of capital can be allocated to speculative assets with high liquidity scores to pursue higher returns, but strict stop-loss settings are necessary.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Liquidity Crunch Caused by Sudden Sentiment Shifts The market sentiment index has experienced severe fluctuations recently, including drops from 51.8 to 36.2 and rises from 14.2 to 50.1. If the sentiment index experiences another sharp daily fluctuation of over 15 points, coupled with a decline in trading volume for major cryptocurrencies like BTC/ETH by more than 20%, there is a risk of sudden liquidity depletion, leading to increased slippage and difficulty in closing positions in time.

2. Risk of Counter-Moving Moves Due to Homogeneous KOL Opinions Currently, the bullish consensus among KOLs is as high as 70%, with the bullish-bear spread expanding by 85.0 percentage points. Historical data shows that when market opinions are highly consistent, it often becomes an easy target for major players to manipulate the market against such trends. If significant negative news or disappointing macroeconomic data emerges later, this strong bullish sentiment could reverse quickly, causing a panic sell among bulls. Investors should be cautious of the pitfalls behind such consistent expectations and avoid blindly chasing rising prices at the peak of consensus.

3. Risk of Price Manipulation Due to Abnormal Whale Activity Whale activity on the blockchain has seen two significant spikes (+46 points and +60 points). While this may indicate new capital entering the market, it could also be whales engaging in arbitrage or price manipulation to lure retail investors. If whale activity surges alongside no substantial price breakthrough or even a divergence (such as falling prices despite rising activity), caution is needed regarding potential selling pressure or manipulative tactics, to avoid entering trades during fake breaks.

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