2026-07-29
Fed decision triggers volatility in BTC
In the early hours of July 30th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision—a moment marked by the highest uncertainty in 20 years due to the absence of a dot plot and internal opposition from hawkish members. While 104 economists predicted no change in interest rates, money market pricing indicated a 32% chance of a rate hike. Coupled with U.S. Treasury yields breaking through key levels and rising oil prices, crypto assets faced significant volatility risks. Additionally, CME data showed a sharp rise in expectations of a rate hike in September, reducing the probability of no change to 23.4%, reflecting deep market polarization.
2026-07-28
Rate Hikes Lead to Falling Long-Term Bonds: Waller Repeats the Greenspan Paradox
The Fed’s new chair, Waller, faces a policy paradox: while raising interest rates to establish credibility in fighting inflation, it may also reduce the inflation premium, driving down long-term interest rates and mortgage rates—aligning with the White House’s goal of lowering borrowing costs.
2026-07-27
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 55.2%
This week is packed with macroeconomic events, with decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan sparking volatility. Although many institutions predict the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week, CME FedWatch data shows that expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September have surged significantly, with the probability rising to 55.2%. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warn that without clear guidance, U.S. Treasury yields could experience volatility, and rising expectations of rate hikes are already putting pressure on small-cap stocks. Some analysts are cautioning that a new round of rate hikes could begin after September.
2026-07-27
Bitcoin rebounds above $65,000
Driven by the US-Iran ceasefire and falling oil prices, Bitcoin’s price rebounded and broke above the $65,155 level. The market is betting on a dovish shift in Fed policy, pushing the put/call ratio down to 0.52 and indicating low expectations for short-term volatility. While geopolitical easing and positive macroeconomic data have fueled price gains, this week’s Fed decision and subsequent economic data will remain key factors determining whether the rebound can sustain itself.
2026-07-26
Next week brings a busy macroeconomic calendar, featuring the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech companies.
With ChangXin Technology set to debut on the STAR Market amid ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-Iran relations, this week’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the financial reports from tech giants such as Apple.
2026-07-24
Citigroup: Rate hikes beyond projections pose a risk premium issue
Rising oil prices above $100 and soaring U.S. Treasury yields have heightened inflation expectations, pushing the probability of a Fed rate hike in July from 31.5% to 37.9%. Citigroup notes that this 30% figure does not represent an actual forecast for a rate hike but rather a risk premium paid by investors to hedge against policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, Polymarket shows that the probability of a rate hike has increased sixfold within a week, signaling to the market that high interest rates are likely to persist and triggering warnings of soaring long-term interest rates.
2026-07-24
JPMorgan raises Intel’s target price to $85
JPMorgan Chase has significantly raised its target price for Intel from $45 to $85, a 89% increase that far exceeds previous forecasts. This upward revision is driven primarily by surging spending on data centers and stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue guidance.
2026-07-23
The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in July rises to 31.5%
Driven by geopolitical tensions raising oil prices and tariff risks, U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs this year, further increasing policy uncertainty. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July has risen to 31.5%, while the likelihood of leaving rates unchanged stands at 68.5%. Market divisions are deepening, with some officials advocating for rate hikes. If a rate-hiking cycle begins at the meeting, it would reverse the pause in rate increases and push up borrowing costs, significantly impacting asset valuations.
2026-07-22
The probability of a Fed rate hike in July drops to 21.9%
Recent market pricing indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 78.1%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike has dropped to 21.9%. On the macro front, South Korea’s KOSPI index rose nearly 10% over two days, driven by gains in chip stocks, with 75% of leveraged ETFs having completed deleveraging. Economists warn that out-of-control inflation could damage the Fed’s credibility, and delaying rate hikes might lead to excessive interest rate adjustments.
2026-07-18
Michael Berry is bullish on Hong Kong stocks, saying there are buying opportunities after the AI boom subsides.
Burry suggests focusing on Hong Kong stocks to find undervalued opportunities, having already increased holdings in JD.com. Morgan Stanley also recommends increasing exposure, optimistic about the company’s financial results.
2026-07-14
Morgan Stanley expects the rebound in U.S. stocks to spread to non-technology sectors.
Over half of S&P 1500 companies are seeing EPS growth rates exceeding 10%, with analysts raising profit forecasts for the consumer and transportation sectors.
2026-07-11
Morgan Stanley warns of three major risks
Morgan Stanley has released its latest research report, warning explicitly that three key factors could bring an end to the summer market rebound. Among them, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes are identified as one of the major macroeconomic threats, with geopolitical conflicts and slowing AI-related spending further contributing to the overall risks facing the market. Analysts note that if these negative factors intensify, they will significantly hinder the stock market from maintaining its strong performance, urging investors to be vigilant about the risk of valuation corrections.
2026-07-08
Morgan Stanley: Funds may shift from semiconductors to cloud computing giants
MS predicts that a reassessment of AI’s capital returns will drive investment toward cloud companies like Microsoft, potentially reversing the current leadership held by the semiconductor sector.
2026-07-07
Morgan Stanley: Capital may shift from semiconductors to cloud computing giants
MS predicts that a reassessment of AI’s capital returns will drive investment toward cloud companies like Microsoft, potentially reversing the current leadership held by the semiconductor sector.
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